865
FXUS64 KBMX 171104
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
504 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 502 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
- A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASED FIRE WEATHER RISK
TODAY AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 20-25% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORTUNATELY, LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
- A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGHS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH IS EXTENDING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL BE THE
MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO MID 70S SOUTHWEST. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER TODAY AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20-25%
RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WHICH
WILL HELP TO MINIMIZE THE FIRE RISK, BUT EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY KIND OF BURNING. MOISTURE WILL RISE ON TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO OUR NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARMING
TREND WILL ALSO OCCUR FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN WHICH STRONG
HEIGHT RISES WILL LEAD TO NEAR-RECORD HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.
A DEEPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AS
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
REGION AND THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
STILL NOTABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND SPEED OF
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, SOME OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE RAIN AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE,
THEN RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVERALL, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BE RATHER DISORGANIZED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING POOR
LAPSE RATES AND WITH PRESSURE RISES OCCURRING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA, SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA, AND COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH MIN
RH DROPPING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE
RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL, BUT FORTUNATELY, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW RED FLAG ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING
THIS TIME. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, AND WE WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN MIN RHS WITH VALUES
RANGING FROM 35-40% IN THE EAST AND 45-50% IN THE WEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 68 41 76 54 / 0 0 0 20
ANNISTON 68 44 76 57 / 0 0 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 70 50 77 60 / 0 0 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 74 51 80 59 / 0 0 0 10
CALERA 73 47 79 57 / 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 71 47 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 74 47 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 74 47 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86/MARTIN
AVIATION.../44/
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