612
FXUS64 KBMX 172349
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
549 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 545 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
- A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGHS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST IS AN
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 15-25% ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE THAT WE WILL SEE RHS DROP BELOW 15% BRIEFLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z HREF HINTS AT A 30-40% CHANCE OF RH LESS THAN 15%
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. LUCKILY, OUR WINDS LOOK
TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS. WE WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY AS OUR SIGNIFICANT
FIRE RISK IS MODERATE TODAY. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WORTH
MONITORING. OUR SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL BUMPS UP INTO THE HIGH
CATEGORY FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA, MAINLY DUE TO AN INCREASE
IN WIND SPEED. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY, WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTS FROM 15-20 KNOTS AT TIMES. AT THE SAME TIME, THE STALLED
BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE. A GRADUAL MOISTENING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT SHOULD HELP NEGATE
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AS MIN RHS REBOUND BACK INTO
THE 40-50% RANGE ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS WHERE THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. OUR EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE RHS IN THE 30S
TOMORROW BUT WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REST OF THE WEEK, A PASSING SHORTWAVE MAY SPARK
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
TRAILING H85 VORT MAX IS PULLED ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. MEANWHILE, A
STOUT UPPER LOW WILL BE CHURNING OFF THE BAJA COAST, EVENTUALLY
LIFTING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND THE PLAINS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND RACE OFF TO THE EAST WHILE SENDING A COLD FRONT OUR WAY ON
SATURDAY. WE WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH
AN OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SEVERE AT THIS TIME. WITH THAT SAID, THERE IS ROUGHLY A 20-30%
CHANCE TO SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. RAIN CHANCES
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE WILL BEGIN TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM WINDS DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SHIFT STARTING OUT AS SE-S
5-9KTS IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING S-SW IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A
WARM FRONT THAT WILL PUSH NEWD ACROSS C AL. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE FORECAST.
08
FIRE WEATHER
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST IS AN
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 15-25% ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE THAT WE WILL SEE RHS DROP BELOW 15% BRIEFLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LUCKILY, OUR WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE,
GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS. WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY AS OUR SIGNIFICANT FIRE RISK IS MODERATE
TODAY. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WORTH MONITORING. OUR
SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL BUMPS UP INTO THE HIGH CATEGORY FOR THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA, MAINLY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD HELP NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MIN RHS REMAIN IN THE 50-60% RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 40 76 55 80 / 0 0 10 0
ANNISTON 44 76 57 80 / 0 0 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 50 77 60 81 / 0 0 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 51 80 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 47 80 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 47 77 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 47 80 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 48 79 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...08
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