487
FXUS64 KBMX 181730
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1130 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1125 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
- A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGHS
EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH LIFTS TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO AN EASTWARD
MOVING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE OZARKS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND 50S DEWPOINTS WILL RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. AS
SUCH, IT WON'T BE QUITE AS DRY AREA-WIDE TODAY, BUT AFTERNOON RH OF
25-35% ACROSS THE EAST IN ADDITION TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A HIGH RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A DECREASED RISK BY THIS EVENING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT, AND THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUSLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS BROAD
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A FEW AREAS COULD REACH
RECORD VALUES ON WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BREAK OFF FROM LARGER-SCALE
TROUGHING OVER THE BAJA COAST. THIS LATE-WEEK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
TREND WEAKER AS IT PROPAGATES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND TO THE
PLAINS BY FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
OZARKS. UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS THE
LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL SEE
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, BUT THE
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND WEAK INSTABILITY DOES NOT
YIELD MUCH CONCERN IN TERMS OF A SEVERE RISK. MILD AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BAJA BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SSW WINDS AROUND 7 TO 10
KTS. TOMORROW MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLING ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA WHILE ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA. CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS ARE MEDIUM WITH A LOW
CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS. WILL INCLUDE MVFR CIGS AT ALL BUT AUO.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG AT MGM. WILL NOTE THAT
THERE IS A LESS LIKELY BUT STILL PLAUSIBLE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
WHERE LOW CLOUDS REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AND FOG REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL BUMPS UP INTO THE HIGH CATEGORY TODAY
FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA, MAINLY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEED WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AS A DRY WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HELP DECREASE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WITH TIME. MIN RHS REMAIN IN THE 45-60% RANGE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 75 55 80 55 / 0 10 0 0
ANNISTON 75 58 79 57 / 0 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 76 60 79 59 / 0 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 79 60 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 79 58 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 76 56 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 79 57 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 78 55 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86/MARTIN
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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