381
FXUS64 KBMX 190204
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
804 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 803 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGHS
EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 803 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
NO CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST.
/61/
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, IN RESPONSE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
MOVING EASTWARD FROM MISSOURI TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS CAUSING
A SURGE IN DEW POINTS ACROSS WEST ALABAMA, WHILE LOWER DEW POINTS
REMAIN ACROSS EAST ALABAMA. THESE LOWER RH VALUES IN EAST ALABAMA
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THERE, BUT THANKFULLY WINDS
ARE A BIT LIGHTER THERE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT YET ANOTHER DAY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
AS THEY APPROACH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT, AS RIDGING BUILDS
BACK IN ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. LOW (20-30%) CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF
DENSE FOG IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TOMORROW. MAINLY
JUST EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDCOVER, WITH A VERY LOW (10%)
CHANCE OF A SHOWER. CLOUDCOVER COULD THROW A BIT OF A WRENCH INTO
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST, BUT RECORD HIGHS WILL BE IN
JEOPARDY WHEREVER IT DOESN'T LINGER. RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES ON
THURSDAY TO THE NORTH OF A 590 DECAMETER ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE
YUCATAN, WHILE THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH. THERE
WILL BE JUST A SMALL (10-20%) CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES NEAR THE FRONT AS SOME WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA
RIDE OVERTOP OF THE RIDGE. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
80S ARE FORECAST.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE EASTWARD BUT WILL ALSO BE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
FROM OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY TO KENTUCKY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL TAKE PLACE AS IT ENCOUNTERS CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND GETS
SQUISHED BY A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL PROVIDE LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL BRING MEDIUM
(40-60%) RAIN CHANCES WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN
THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDING BACK IN
ALOFT, THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE THREAT. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL NEAR THE GULF COAST SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH RIDGING
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CUTOFF LOW. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST ON THE AVIATION SIDE OF THINGS TONIGHT.
THERE'S A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING REGARDING CEILINGS. WILL
CONTINUE TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT INCLUDES SUB-2000 FT
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE (12Z-ISH). I'M EVEN LESS
CERTAIN ABOUT THOSE CEILINGS AT MGM, SO I WENT WITH A TEMPO
CONDITION THERE. AND EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AT AUO, WHERE I LEFT
OUT THE LOW CEILINGS ALTOGETHER. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING IN
IS GOING TO BE PRETTY MOISTURE STARVED OTHERWISE, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION ANY RAIN THE FORECAST. ASIDE FROM THE
CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS, THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND
SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS WEST ALABAMA, BUT EAST ALABAMA
REMAINS DRY WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON. 20FT WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SSW GUSTING TO 10 TO
15 MPH. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES INCREASE TO THE 40-60 PERCENT
RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LIMITED RAIN CHANCES UNTIL FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 19:
KBHM: 80/1985
KEET: 75/1999
KANB: 81/1963
KTCL: 80/1981
KMGM: 84/1906
NOVEMBER 20:
KBHM: 79/1896
KEET: 75/2007
KANB: 78/1979
KTCL: 80/1949
KMGM: 81/1900
NOVEMBER 21:
KEET: 77/2011
KANB: 77/2011
KTCL: 79/1965
KMGM: 83/2011
NOVEMBER 22:
KBHM: 79/1900
KEET: 77/2010
KANB: 79/1963
KTCL: 79/1979
KMGM: 81/2011
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 56 79 54 81 / 30 10 0 10
ANNISTON 58 78 57 80 / 10 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 61 79 60 81 / 10 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 60 82 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 58 81 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 56 79 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 58 81 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 56 81 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../61/
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