113
FXUS64 KBMX 190647
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1247 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1242 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- WARM CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY WITH A REMNANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER TODAY WHILE BROAD RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PERSISTENT ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS
AFTERNOON, AND SOME SPOTS MAY REACH A RECORD DAILY VALUE.
A SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING AS THE GULF RIDGE IS DAMPENED. SIMILAR
TO TODAY, ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE OZARKS AND REACH
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON, CONTINUING
OFF AND ON THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. POOR INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY LIMITATION FOR A SEVERE THREAT THIS GO AROUND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A
CUTOFF LOW SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM, POTENTIALLY MORE ORGANIZED
THAN THE LAST, IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION BY THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO A
STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. VFR CEILINGS
WILL RETURN BY MID TO LATE MORNING, BUT EXPECT THESE LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY. THERE ARE ALSO MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING AT MGM AND AUO DUE TO
ADVECTION FOG WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 13Z.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER TODAY, RANGING FROM 55-70% THIS
AFTERNOON. 20FT WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 5-8 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AREA-WIDE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 19:
KBHM: 80/1985
KEET: 75/1999
KANB: 81/1963
KTCL: 80/1981
KMGM: 84/1906
NOVEMBER 20:
KBHM: 79/1896
KEET: 75/2007
KANB: 78/1979
KTCL: 80/1949
KMGM: 81/1900
NOVEMBER 21:
KEET: 77/2011
KANB: 77/2011
KTCL: 79/1965
KMGM: 83/2011
NOVEMBER 22:
KBHM: 79/1900
KEET: 77/2010
KANB: 79/1963
KTCL: 79/1979
KMGM: 81/2011
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 79 55 80 56 / 10 0 10 10
ANNISTON 78 58 80 58 / 0 0 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 78 60 80 60 / 0 0 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 82 60 83 58 / 0 0 0 10
CALERA 81 58 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 78 59 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 80 58 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 80 56 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86/MARTIN
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
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