868
FXUS64 KBMX 192337
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
537 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 526 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- WARM CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON NEXT TUESDAY,
WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND REMNANT WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA, THERE WILL BE BROAD RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
WITH THE POSITION OF THE MORE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA, THERE IS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF PATCHY TO DENSE
FOG AFTER 3 AM FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.
A SHORTWAVE SHOULD EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH THE GULF
RIDGE WEAKENING. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE OZARKS AND
REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. POOR INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW SHIFTING EAST
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM, REMAINS MORE ORGANIZED WITHIN THE MODEL SCENARIOS AND
WILL BE WORTH MONITORING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR POTENTIAL STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW MODELS
INDICATE THE CONCERN FOR STRONGER ACTIVITY, BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES
ARE RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE OF EXACT LOCATIONS AND TIME OF THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY.16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF SITES, CEILING FORECAST REMAINS A BIT
PROBLEMATIC. CLOUD BASES WERE ABLE TO GET ABOVE 3000 FT IN MOST
SPOTS BEFORE DARK TODAY. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT IN
THE BEST AGREEMENT IN WHAT HAPPENS FROM HERE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. I HEDGED MY BETS ON THE MODEL THAT MORE CORRECTLY PREDICTED
THE LOWER CEILINGS HANGING ON THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THAT MODEL
SUGGESTS CEILINGS NOT STRAYING MUCH FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW UNTIL
1400 OR 1500 UTC TOMORROW. THE FOG FORMATION FORECAST IS EVEN MORE
UNCERTAIN. IF IT HAPPENS, IT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MGM AND/OR AUO,
BUT I DO WONDER IF THE ONGOING STRATO-CU CLOUD DECK MIGHT SUPPRESS
FOG FORMATION THAT FAR NORTH. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AREA-WIDE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY
AND NEXT TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 19:
KBHM: 80/1985
KEET: 75/1999
KANB: 81/1963
KTCL: 80/1981
KMGM: 84/1906
NOVEMBER 20:
KBHM: 79/1896
KEET: 75/2007
KANB: 78/1979
KTCL: 80/1949
KMGM: 81/1900
NOVEMBER 21:
KEET: 77/2011
KANB: 77/2011
KTCL: 79/1965
KMGM: 83/2011
NOVEMBER 22:
KBHM: 79/1900
KEET: 77/2010
KANB: 79/1963
KTCL: 79/1979
KMGM: 81/2011
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 56 79 56 75 / 0 10 10 40
ANNISTON 59 80 58 75 / 0 10 10 30
BIRMINGHAM 60 80 60 74 / 0 10 10 50
TUSCALOOSA 60 81 58 75 / 0 0 10 60
CALERA 58 82 57 76 / 0 0 0 50
AUBURN 59 79 57 77 / 0 0 0 20
MONTGOMERY 58 81 57 79 / 0 0 0 30
TROY 56 81 56 79 / 0 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION.../61/
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page