564
FXUS64 KBMX 201724
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1124 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1122 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA, PERHAPS AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.
- AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
FOCUSED ON FRIDAY AND TUESDAY. A LOW RISK FOR A COUPLE STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ARISE WITH THE TUESDAY SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
TODAY & FRIDAY:
SURFACE COOLING COMBINED WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE IS
RESULTING IN FOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING.
OCCURRENCES OF DENSE FOG ARE COMMON PER ASOS AND CAMERAS.
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING.
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, THE WEATHER SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH ANOTHER
DAY OF NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
RIDE THE NORTHERN PERIMETER OF 500 MB RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
YUCATAN, BRINGING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
278 CORRIDOR OF NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA.
ANOTHER IMPULSE COMES BY ON FRIDAY WITH A BETTER OFFERING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. CAMS SHOW THIS
OCCURRING IN THE FORM OF MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF ACTIVITY, WHICH
MATCHES THE MODELED CONFIGURATION OF THIS SYSTEM. WHILE A MODEST
AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POOR INSTABILITY PROFILES; SO, SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH A FEW BENEFICIAL DOWNPOURS MAY DEVELOP.
THE WEEKEND:
IF THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ENOUGH, SATURDAY'S WEATHER MAY INCLUDE
LINGERING AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MODELS
AGREE THAT BY SUNDAY WE'RE TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, BUT NOT TO THE MARGINS
OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
NEXT WEEK:
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY (NOV 20) IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WEEKEND AS A
CLOSED LOW AND THEN MOVE EAST EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS SOME FORM
OF AN OPEN TROUGH. ENSEMBLES SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING OUR AREA DURING A TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME.
THERE HAS BEEN VARIABILITY REGARDING THE MODELED STRUCTURE OF THE
TROUGH; THIS HEAVILY IMPACTS THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST. RIGHT
NOW, THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS COULD SUPPORT A LOW SEVERE
WEATHER RISK, BUT THAT'S IN CONTRAST TO MORE TAME AND NON-SEVERE
SOLUTIONS. THERE'S NOT QUITE ENOUGH THERE TO INTRODUCE A SEVERE
WEATHER RISK AT THIS TIME.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAS FINALLY LIFTED ACROSS THE AREA. WE MAY
HAVE SOME MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE NEXT HOUR BUT SHOULD LIFT BY
19/20Z. AT BHM AND EET BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE
WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THINKING IS
THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE AT AUO AND MGM WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE
WILL BE AROUND WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. AREAS IN THE NORTH WILL
STILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR FOG BUT WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER THE PICTURE IN THE WEST. INCLUDED A
PROB30 FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH FROM 14 TO 18Z.
16
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 20:
KBHM: 79/1896
KEET: 75/2007
KANB: 78/1979
KTCL: 80/1949
KMGM: 81/1900
NOVEMBER 21:
KEET: 77/2011
KANB: 77/2011
KTCL: 79/1965
KMGM: 83/2011
NOVEMBER 22:
KBHM: 79/1900
KEET: 77/2010
KANB: 79/1963
KTCL: 79/1979
KMGM: 81/2011
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 78 55 74 62 / 20 10 70 70
ANNISTON 80 58 75 64 / 10 10 60 70
BIRMINGHAM 78 59 72 65 / 10 10 70 60
TUSCALOOSA 82 58 73 64 / 10 10 70 50
CALERA 82 56 74 64 / 0 0 70 60
AUBURN 80 57 77 65 / 0 0 20 40
MONTGOMERY 80 56 79 66 / 0 0 40 40
TROY 81 55 79 65 / 0 0 20 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...16
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