702
FXUS64 KBMX 201806
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1206 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1202 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA, PERHAPS AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.
- AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
FOCUSED ON FRIDAY AND TUESDAY. A LOW RISK FOR A COUPLE STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ARISE WITH THE TUESDAY SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
CURRENTLY WATCHING THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. THIS
WAVE IS RIDING ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT HAS LIFTED INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT ARCS AROUND ALABAMA FROM
LITTLE ROCK TO NASHVILLE AND THEN BACK SOUTH TO ATHENS, GEORGIA.
THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL SLIDE ALONG THE FRONT
AND JUST CLIP OUR NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ON FRIDAY THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE THE MAIN LOW SLIDES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE MAIN DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, SO REALLY ONLY LOOKING AT GENERAL STORMS
AT BEST WITH THE FRONT. ONLY OTHER WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ONCE AGAIN. WITH THE ADDED CLOUD
COVER IN THE NORTH, IT APPEARS THAT ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE SOUTH. FOR NOW JUST WENT WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FOG IN THE SOUTH AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TRENDS TO OUR OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT.
THIS FRONT CLEARS ON SATURDAY AND WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS RIDGING WILL BE ENHANCED THANKS TO A CUTOFF
LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US UNTIL A LARGER TROUGH
BEGINS TO DESCEND INTO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. THIS LARGER SCALE
TROUGH WILL ABSORB THE CUTOFF LOW AND THEN SWING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS ON TUESDAY AS WELL AS TIMING FOR ANY STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS. RIGHT NOW THE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR ANY WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
WELL INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CANADA, WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY TO FINALLY CLEAR OUT THE AREA
AND BRING IN SOME FALL WEATHER. JUST IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING WITH
SOME ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT THERE ARE SOME LOW
PROBABILITIES OF A COLD RAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH ONE OF
THE MODELS ENSEMBLE RUNS AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET REMAINS
ACTIVE. MORE ON THAT IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAS FINALLY LIFTED ACROSS THE AREA. WE MAY
HAVE SOME MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE NEXT HOUR BUT SHOULD LIFT BY
19/20Z. AT BHM AND EET BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE
WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THINKING IS
THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE AT AUO AND MGM WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE
WILL BE AROUND WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. AREAS IN THE NORTH WILL
STILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR FOG BUT WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER THE PICTURE IN THE WEST. INCLUDED A
PROB30 FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH FROM 14 TO 18Z.
16
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 20:
KBHM: 79/1896
KEET: 75/2007
KANB: 78/1979
KTCL: 80/1949
KMGM: 81/1900
NOVEMBER 21:
KEET: 77/2011
KANB: 77/2011
KTCL: 79/1965
KMGM: 83/2011
NOVEMBER 22:
KBHM: 79/1900
KEET: 77/2010
KANB: 79/1963
KTCL: 79/1979
KMGM: 81/2011
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 55 74 62 76 / 10 70 70 20
ANNISTON 58 75 64 75 / 10 60 70 20
BIRMINGHAM 59 72 65 76 / 10 70 60 20
TUSCALOOSA 58 73 64 78 / 10 70 50 20
CALERA 56 74 64 78 / 0 70 60 20
AUBURN 57 77 65 77 / 0 20 40 20
MONTGOMERY 56 79 66 81 / 0 40 40 10
TROY 55 79 65 81 / 0 20 20 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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