758
FXUS64 KBMX 211759
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1159 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1151 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON SATURDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NEXT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A LOW RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ARISE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
- CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
TODAY & TONIGHT:
A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BROAD ASCENT WILL SPAWN
SEVERAL PROGRESSIVE BATCHES/CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW LEVELS TO ONLY BE
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AT BEST, THOUGH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL
EXIST, WITH BULK SHEAR NEARING 40 KNOTS AND A DECENTLY VEERED WIND
PROFILE. A COUPLE CELLS MAY ACQUIRE MODEST INTENSITY, OFFERING:
DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND TRANSIENT, "MINI-
SPINNY" STRUCTURES (BRIEF TORNADO THREAT IS QUITE LOW).
THE WEEKEND:
WE SHOULD BE ON THE TAIL END OF THE BRUNT OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LAST MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVES BY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, THOUGH A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAINS AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH FRIDAY'S SYSTEM NEARS
THE REGION. PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DAILY RECORD FOR A FEW CLIMATE
SITES.
CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND-HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK:
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT
WEEK, HOLDING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MONDAY LOOKS RAIN-FREE AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A PAIR OF TROUGHS WILL BE
ON ITS HEELS AND BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN THE PRIMARY WINDOW BEING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT; HOWEVER, THERE'S A DECENT AMOUNT OF GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES
THAT SHOW A SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM, RESULTING IN LINGERING
ACTIVITY INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST A
LOW SEVERE WEATHER RISK COULD MATERIALIZE, THOUGH THE MAIN LOBE OF
FORCING QUICKLY EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE EVENT. WE
MAINTAIN THE SAME POSTURE OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS: WATCHING BUT
NO FORMAL INCLUSION IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THANKSGIVING DAY:
IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL GET THE EARLY-WEEK RAINMAKER OUT OF HERE IN
TIME FOR THANKSGIVING. THE CURRENT FORECAST FEATURES FAIR-WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE HANGING ON ACROSS MOST TERMINALS AS WE GO INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA NOW MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. SHRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, LIMITING VISIBILITIES AND KEEPING CEILINGS IN THE LOW-
END VFR OR HOVERING IN THE HIGH-END MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 2000 AND
4000 FEET AS A RESULT. A LOW-END CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST BUT WILL KEEP ANY PREVAILING MENTION OF TSRA OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR NOW, GOING WITH A PROB30 INSTEAD. CEILINGS WILL
DROP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SEVERAL TERMINALS. AT THE
VERY LEAST, IFR TO PERHAPS LIFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 14Z
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AFTER 18Z.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
MINRHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE, AND WINDS BELOW, CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
LIKELY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 22:
KBHM: 79/1900
KEET: 77/2010
KANB: 79/1963
KTCL: 79/1979
KMGM: 81/2011
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 71 63 77 47 / 60 70 30 0
ANNISTON 72 64 76 50 / 60 80 40 0
BIRMINGHAM 70 65 76 51 / 70 80 30 0
TUSCALOOSA 70 65 78 50 / 80 60 20 0
CALERA 71 64 79 50 / 80 80 30 0
AUBURN 71 64 78 53 / 50 60 30 0
MONTGOMERY 75 66 81 53 / 70 50 20 0
TROY 76 66 81 53 / 30 20 20 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...89
AVIATION...56/GDG
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