875
FXUS64 KBMX 212007
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
207 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 207 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON SATURDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NEXT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A LOW RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ARISE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
- CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING:
CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS IN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT THUS FAR AS WE GO
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG WITH OVERCAST SKIES. LIFT THUS FAR HAS BEEN MORE STRATIFORM
IN NATURE WITH A 500MB IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH WITHIN WESTERLY
FLOW, ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 700MB AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL STILL EXIST FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM SECTOR THAT IS OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
ATTEMPTS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD. LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY
BEING OBSERVED AT LAUREL AND HATTIESBURG, MS AT THIS HOUR, WITH
MID 60S ON THE OBSERVATIONS AT DEMOPOLIS EASTWARD TO MONTGOMERY
AND TROY. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD QUITE A
BIT DUE TO THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS, BUT WE STILL HAVE A FEW HOURS
WHERE SOME MIXING CAN OCCUR TO GET SOME DAYTIME HEATING INVOLVED
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WHERE THE MOST UNSTABLE
AIR CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, WE'RE SEEING
STORM DEVELOPMENT AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO INCREASES. WE'LL BE
WATCHING THOSE STORMS CLOSELY, AS THEY WILL BE MOVING DOWNSTREAM
INTO OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
0-3KM SRH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. IF ENOUGH OF THE WARM SECTOR IS ABLE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD, A
FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD TO WORRY ABOUT, BUT WE'LL LIKELY SEE A FEW UPDRAFTS
ROTATING AS WELL WITH VEERING WIND PROFILES EARLY ON. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WIND PROFILES AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER, BECOMING PARALLEL WITH THE MEAN FLOW AND APPROACHING SURFACE
FRONT. CAMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE PICKING UP ON ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7AM MOSTLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. A FEW OF THESE COULD ALSO BE
ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES
TO AROUND 60 KNOTS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ALMOST DUE EAST OR
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY:
DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING AND CLEARING
SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH COOLER AIR LAGGING BEHIND THE ACTUAL
FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZE BETWEEN 10 AND 15MPH. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW RETURNS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY WITH COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
NEXT WEEK:
THE 500MB PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CHANGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A STORM SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 500MB WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH A SURFACE FRONT HEADED IN
OUR DIRECTION BY MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WITH
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR THIS SYSTEM WELL OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST, A SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT
SOME ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC-SCALE DETAILS IN TERMS OF THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM, SO STAY TUNED. AT THE VERY LEAST, WELCOMED SHOWERS
AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF ALABAMA
WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA. A MORE DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THANKSGIVING DAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE HANGING ON ACROSS MOST TERMINALS AS WE GO INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA NOW MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. SHRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, LIMITING VISIBILITIES AND KEEPING CEILINGS IN THE LOW-
END VFR OR HOVERING IN THE HIGH-END MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 2000 AND
4000 FEET AS A RESULT. A LOW-END CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST BUT WILL KEEP ANY PREVAILING MENTION OF TSRA OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR NOW, GOING WITH A PROB30 INSTEAD. CEILINGS WILL
DROP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SEVERAL TERMINALS. AT THE
VERY LEAST, IFR TO PERHAPS LIFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 14Z
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AFTER 18Z.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
MINRHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE, AND WINDS BELOW, CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
LIKELY NEXT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 22:
KBHM: 79/1900
KEET: 77/2010
KANB: 79/1963
KTCL: 79/1979
KMGM: 81/2011
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 63 77 47 70 / 70 30 0 0
ANNISTON 64 76 50 70 / 80 40 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 65 76 51 70 / 80 30 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 65 78 50 72 / 60 20 0 0
CALERA 64 79 50 73 / 80 30 0 0
AUBURN 64 78 53 73 / 60 30 0 0
MONTGOMERY 66 81 53 75 / 50 20 0 0
TROY 66 81 53 75 / 20 20 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...56/GDG
AVIATION...56/GDG
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