655
FXUS64 KBMX 230932
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
332 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 245 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
- DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH A LEVEL
1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR A COUPLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
- CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
EARLY THIS WEEK:
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE APPROACHES TODAY AND QUICKLY SCOOTS BY ON
MONDAY, RESULTING IN TAME WEATHER CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND SATURDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROMOTE RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S RECORD HIGHS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS BACK IN ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN INCREASING OUR
MARGIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
TUESDAY'S ACTIVE WEATHER:
A PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY IS FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE TIME IT SWINGS BY OUR REGION. A KEY ITEM
IS THAT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS EVOLUTION, ITS AXIS OF FORCING
QUICKLY EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD LEAVE US WITH A BIT
OF A DISJOINTED SETUP IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER; HOWEVER, A
SHEARED WIND PROFILE IS FORECAST TO ENVELOP THE REGION WITH THE
PROSPECT FOR AT LEAST A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS, SO ITS WORTH
SOME ATTENTION.
FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THE INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THOUGH THE TROUGH AXIS WOULD BE AT ITS MOST FAVORABLE
PROXIMITY AT THIS TIME, IN THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE WARM
ADVECTION TO OVERCOME BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING, SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO BE NIL. THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL OCCUR,
THOUGH, DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT, BUT THE SEVERE RISK WOULD
BE LOW IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE COURSE OF TUESDAY. CLOUDINESS PLUS THE
ANTICIPATED COVERAGE AND REOCCURRING NATURE OF ACTIVITY MAY KEEP
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FAIRLY MODEST; COMBINED WITH VEERING
SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW, AND THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL JET CORRIDOR
PULLING AWAY, THE SEVERE RISK LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
STILL, THERE WILL BE AMPLE SPEED SHEAR SO WE'LL HAVE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DRAW TO A CLOSE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND A NORTHWEST BREEZE THROUGH
THE DAY. A CHILLIER AIR MASS WILL BE INBOUND FROM THE NORTHWEST,
ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LATE WEEK:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FEATURING
CLEAR WEATHER AND COLD MORNINGS/AND COOL TO MILD AFTERNOONS.
THE WEEKEND:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. A BROAD
TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SEND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES EASTWARD. IF THE FASTER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT, WE
COULD SEE RAIN RETURN FOR THE SECOND-HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
FLIGHT CATEGORIES RANGE FROM VFR TO LIFR IN DENSE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS AS OF 05:45Z HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. MGM AND AUO WILL BE
AFFECTED AT VARYING EXTENT OVER THE COMING HOURS BY IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND FOG DUE TO MOIST LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT, RETURNING TO VFR AROUND 15Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, AN MVFR
CLOUD DECK IS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, POISED
TO AFFECT TCL, BHM, AND EET TO SOME EXTENT BETWEEN 10-15Z SUNDAY.
BEYOND 15Z SUNDAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE BOARD
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
MINRHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RELATIVELY LOW MINRHS LOOK TO RETURN LATE
NEXT WEEK, FROM THANKSGIVING TO SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST
TODAY AND MONDAY, BECOMING CLOSER TO 10 MPH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY, THE LIGHT ONCE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 42 73 55 / 0 0 0 50
ANNISTON 71 44 74 57 / 0 0 0 30
BIRMINGHAM 69 47 73 60 / 0 0 0 50
TUSCALOOSA 72 47 76 60 / 0 0 0 60
CALERA 73 45 76 57 / 0 0 0 40
AUBURN 74 51 75 57 / 0 0 0 20
MONTGOMERY 75 48 78 58 / 0 0 0 20
TROY 74 50 78 56 / 0 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR-BULLOCK-CHAMBERS-ELMORE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MONTGOMERY-PIKE-RUSSELL-TALLAPOOSA.
DISCUSSION...89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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