194
FXUS64 KBMX 232300
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
500 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 455 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH A LEVEL
1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR A COUPLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
- CLEAR AND COLDER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
OVERALL NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FAR
WESTERN AREAS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN A DAY 2 MARGINAL SO WE WILL JUST
ADJUST THE BEGINNING TIME OF THE ACTIVITY, STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TO WORK IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ANY ELEVATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST AS EARLY AS 3 TO 6 AM AMD
THEN SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. REALLY LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE TWO
ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY. THE FIRST WAVE WOULD BE THE MORNING ACTIVITY
WITH MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME
DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS, THUS RESULTING
IN A STRONGER DOWNDRAFT. MOST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE POTENTIAL BUT SLIGHTLY DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EASTWARD
EXTENT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON,
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
EURO, BUT IS ALSO MORE LAID OVER, THUS NOT AS POTENT. ANOTHER
CAVEAT TO ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE
RAIN DURING THE MORNING. THE CAMS ARE NOW COMING IN WITH A
DIFFERING OPINION ON THIS AS WELL. A MORE FOCUSED AND SLOWER
SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHEAST. WE
WILL BE WORKING ON SOME TIMING MAPS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE OUT
LATER.
16
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
EARLY THIS WEEK:
SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS BACK IN ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN INCREASING OUR
MARGIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
TUESDAY'S ACTIVE WEATHER:
A PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY IS FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE TIME IT SWINGS BY OUR REGION. A KEY ITEM
IS THAT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS EVOLUTION, ITS AXIS OF FORCING
QUICKLY EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD LEAVE US WITH A BIT
OF A DISJOINTED SETUP IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER; HOWEVER, A
SHEARED WIND PROFILE IS FORECAST TO ENVELOP THE REGION WITH THE
PROSPECT FOR AT LEAST A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS, SO ITS WORTH
SOME ATTENTION.
FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THE INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THOUGH THE TROUGH AXIS WOULD BE AT ITS MOST FAVORABLE
PROXIMITY AT THIS TIME, IN THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE WARM
ADVECTION TO OVERCOME BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING, SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO BE NIL. THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL OCCUR,
THOUGH, DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT, BUT THE SEVERE RISK WOULD
BE LOW IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE COURSE OF TUESDAY. CLOUDINESS PLUS THE
ANTICIPATED COVERAGE AND REOCCURRING NATURE OF ACTIVITY MAY KEEP
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FAIRLY MODEST; COMBINED WITH VEERING
SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW, AND THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL JET CORRIDOR
PULLING AWAY, THE SEVERE RISK LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
STILL, THERE WILL BE AMPLE SPEED SHEAR SO WE'LL HAVE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DRAW TO A CLOSE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND A NORTHWEST BREEZE THROUGH
THE DAY. A CHILLIER AIR MASS WILL BE INBOUND FROM THE NORTHWEST,
ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LATE WEEK:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FEATURING
CLEAR WEATHER AND COLD MORNINGS/AND COOL TO MILD AFTERNOONS.
THE WEEKEND:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. A BROAD
TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SEND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES EASTWARD. IF THE FASTER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT, WE
COULD SEE RAIN RETURN FOR THE SECOND-HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 455 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT, EXPECTING PATCHY RIVER
FOG TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR VIS AT TCL/MGM.
MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF MVFR CIGS AT AUO. HOWEVER, TRANSITIONED
TO A TEMPO GROUP AS THE LATEST HREF PROBS ARE NOT TOO CONVINCING.
WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SSE BY MID MORNING, GENERALLY FROM 7-10
KNOTS.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MINRHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RELATIVELY LOW MINRHS LOOK TO RETURN LATE
NEXT WEEK, FROM THANKSGIVING TO SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY, BECOMING CLOSER TO 10 MPH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY, THE LIGHT ONCE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 42 74 56 72 / 0 0 50 90
ANNISTON 46 75 58 73 / 0 0 40 80
BIRMINGHAM 49 74 59 72 / 0 0 60 90
TUSCALOOSA 49 76 60 75 / 0 0 60 90
CALERA 48 77 58 76 / 0 0 50 90
AUBURN 53 76 59 76 / 0 0 20 50
MONTGOMERY 51 78 59 79 / 0 0 20 60
TROY 51 78 58 79 / 0 0 20 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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