212
FXUS64 KBMX 260249
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
849 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 846 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAZARDS INCLUDING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS,
QUARTER SIZE HAIL, AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
- CLEAR AND COLDER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 846 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
AS OF WRITING, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SATURATED SOILS IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S CONVECTION HAS
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. FUTURE EXPANSION TO INCLUDE OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
95/CASTILLO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
CURRENTLY WATCHING THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WORK QUICKLY
NORTHWARD. BASED ON DEWPOINT IT IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF TUSCALOOSA
AND ALABASTER, BUT JUST SOUTH OF BIRMINGHAM. WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY
WIND AT THE SHELBY COUNTY AIRPORT WITH DEWPOINT AT 66 DEGREES. IN
JUST ONE HOUR WE HAVE GONE FROM 61 TO 66. MONTGOMERY AND AUBURN
ARE ALSO AT 66 DEGREE DEWPOINT THIS HOUR. WE ARE SEEING SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS IS MS AND ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT. WE ARE MONITORING SEVERAL
WEAK CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE LINE AND AHEAD SO THE POTENTIAL
REMAINS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND LOW END CHANCE OF A FEW TORNADOES
UNTIL THE LINE PASSES. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF JEFFERSON COUNTY
WE INCLUDED IT IN THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. NOT SURE IF THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT CAN PASS ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE COUNTY BEFORE THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR
WEST WORK THROUGH. OTHERWISE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE TIMING THROUGH
TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS, WITH MORE
INFORMATION IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION ON THAT.
AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE WEEKEND, ZONAL
500 MB FLOW WILL INDUCE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 850 MB AND LOW-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT, LEADING TO OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE THAT NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED OF
THINGS TO WATCH FOR. FIRST THE CURRENT BLENDED MODEL STILL HAS
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. THE
PROBLEM WITH THIS IS THAT THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SHOW A DRIER BUT COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE BLENDED
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES, SO THIS PLACES
THE FORECAST IN AN INTERESTING POSITION (SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS,
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S). I WOULD EXPECT THE
TRENDS OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS TO CONTINUE WITH THE COOLER AND
DRIER SCENARIO SO THE BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE SHOULD CATCH UP OVER
THE NEXT FEW RUNS. FOR NOW LOWERED RAIN CHANCES A TOUCH AND
WARMED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. THE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW, SO WILL JUST MENTION WET
WEATHER WITH ONLY LIMITED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AFTER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
16
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 938 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
CENTRAL ALABAMA IS CURRENTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF SEVERE
STORMS THAT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE FROM WALKER EASTWARD
TO CHEROKEE COUNTY. THIS "FIRST ROUND" OF STORMS WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A POTENT 75-80KT 500MB SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW LIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. FOLLOWING THE MORNING ROUND OF STORMS, THE
QUESTION NOW BECOMES WHAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL LOOK LIKE FOR THE
"SECOND ROUND" OF STORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR AT THIS HOUR THANKS TO THE
PREVIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNING'S STORMS.
THE MOST RECENT WPC MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION ANALYZES
THE CURRENT SURFACE SETUP VERY WELL: A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
JET IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND LIFTING PARCELS
UP AND OVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, DEVELOPING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY
DUE TO THE SPEED SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC LIFT ALOFT. STORMS ARE MOVING
ACROSS SIMILAR AREAS, SO WE'LL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING. STORM DRAINS MAY ALSO BE CLOGGED FROM RECENT
FALLING LEAVES THAT COULD ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.
SO THE QUESTION REALLY IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THIS OLD REMNANT
BOUNDARY AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON. CAMS HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME
RESOLVING THE CURRENT MESOSCALE SITUATION, AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR DUE TO THE
CONSISTENT SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT HOLDING THE OLD "COLD
POOL" IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. LOOKING TO THE SOUTH, HOWEVER,
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ARE NOT FAR AWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. SURFACE WIND GUSTS WERE
OBSERVED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS IN GREENVILLE AND EVERGREEN,
ALONG WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS IN MERIDIAN, MS. SO THERE'S NO
QUESTION THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL ATTEMPT
TO RE-SUPPLY THE TROPICAL AND UNSTABLE AIR THAT WAS LOST DUE TO
THE MORNING ROUND OF STORMS. EVENTUALLY, THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
STILL EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND CAUSE
DEWPOINTS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE U.S. 278
CORRIDOR, SEVERE CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER, AS IT WILL BE A RACE
AGAINST TIME BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING NOW EXITING OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST, WE'LL NEED A GOOD AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION AT THE SURFACE
TO SUPPORT SEVERE UPDRAFTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME
SUNSHINE PEEKING THROUGH AT TIMES IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES, SO WE'LL NEED TO WATCH OBSERVATION TRENDS
CLOSELY. SURFACE WINDS HAVE YET TO START VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST, SO SUPERCELL-TYPE STRUCTURES WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL
DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
CURRENT SEVERE OUTLOOK AREA WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK
AS WE WATCH TO SEE IF THE OLD OUTFLOW CAN BE OVERTAKEN BY THE LOW-
LEVEL JET.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS CLEARED BHM/EET/TCL
WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN IT'S WAKE. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
TSRA TEMPO GROUPS FOR AUO/MGM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THIS
CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH. PATCHY FOG HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT
TCL. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO LAST TOO LONG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
MOVE IN. WE WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THIS EVENING BEFORE
LOW LEVEL STRATUS DEVELOPS, LEADING TO MVFR CIGS. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH VFR RETURNING BY
LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS FROM 15-20 KNOTS LIKELY.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A FRONT THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES. BEHIND THE FRONT, A DRIER AIRMASS
WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO 25-35 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE
NEAR 10 MPH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH FROM THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, BUT WEAKER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 50 60 31 52 / 40 0 0 0
ANNISTON 52 62 32 52 / 70 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 53 60 34 52 / 30 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 50 61 34 55 / 10 0 0 0
CALERA 50 64 33 55 / 40 0 0 0
AUBURN 57 67 36 55 / 80 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 56 66 35 56 / 80 0 0 0
TROY 56 68 35 56 / 80 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-
COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARENGO-MARION-
PERRY-PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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