213
FXUS64 KBMX 272310
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
510 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 508 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
- CLEAR AND COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A RAINY PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SEASONABLY
CHILLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND BRING A CHANGE BACK TO
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, THE RAIN WILL PROBABLY COME IN
TWO WAVES...ONE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, AND THE OTHER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IN THE SOUTH HALF, THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY STALL OUT, CAUSING SHOWERY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE TO LINGER LONGER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND/OR START EARLIER MONDAY EVENING.
MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN ENDING THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THAT WILL RETURN OUR REGION TO A DRY
AND SEASONABLY COLD REGIME ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
/61/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RH VALUES FALLING TO 25-30 PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FALL JUST
SHORT OF REG FLAG CRITERIA. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, AND RH VALUES MAY DROP AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 25 49 25 54 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 26 49 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 28 49 32 55 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 29 52 31 57 / 0 0 0 10
CALERA 28 53 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 31 51 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 29 52 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 30 52 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../44/
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