471
FXUS64 KBMX 281121
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
521 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 515 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
- CLEAR AND COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- A RAINY PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES,
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR, AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 AT DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING, AND AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER COMPARED TO THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY
MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES, SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH PART OF MONDAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY NIGHT, ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. A COLD RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW SKIRTS THE GULF COAST
BEFORE MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WE
CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
GUSTS FROM 15-20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AGAIN
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
AFTERNOON RH VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT, THOUGH RH COULD DROP AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT AT A FEW SPOTS IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
20 FOOT WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WET PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 50 26 55 42 / 0 0 0 60
ANNISTON 50 28 55 44 / 0 0 0 40
BIRMINGHAM 51 31 55 47 / 0 0 0 60
TUSCALOOSA 53 32 57 46 / 0 0 10 70
CALERA 52 30 58 45 / 0 0 0 50
AUBURN 51 33 57 45 / 0 0 0 20
MONTGOMERY 54 31 60 47 / 0 0 0 20
TROY 54 31 60 46 / 0 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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