342
FXUS64 KBMX 281932
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
132 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 114 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
- CLEAR AND COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- A RAINY PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
EVERYTHING IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
LATEST DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODEL RUNS HAVE FURTHER SOLIDIFIED
THE IDEA OF TWO WAVES OF WET WEATHER -- SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, AND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE INITIAL BATCH OF RAIN WILL
BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, AND BE MORE SHOWERY IN
NATURE. THE BREAK IN THE ACTION WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY
MONDAY, AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL HELP DEVELOP
A LARGE OVERRUNNING RAIN AREA OVER TOP OF THE FRONT BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE ON TUESDAY, A WIDESPREAD
1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES OF COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
SOME POCKETS OF 2.5 INCHES. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE
QUITE LIMITED, SO NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
DRY WEATHER ULTIMATELY RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT,
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FALLS OFF THE CLIFF, AS GLOBAL MODELS REALLY
DIVERGE ON HOW THE NEXT SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE HANDLED. USING AN
ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND APPROACH YIELDS A BROAD BRUSHED CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POP AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
/61/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NO CLOUDS BELOW 15K FT, AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED. THE RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS STILL BEYOND 24
HOURS AWAY.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
AFTERNOON RH VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT, THOUGH RH COULD DROP AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT AT A FEW SPOTS IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
20 FOOT WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WET PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 25 55 39 53 / 0 0 50 70
ANNISTON 28 55 41 55 / 0 0 40 70
BIRMINGHAM 32 55 44 52 / 0 0 60 60
TUSCALOOSA 32 57 44 54 / 0 10 60 60
CALERA 30 58 42 56 / 0 0 40 70
AUBURN 33 57 43 62 / 0 0 10 50
MONTGOMERY 33 60 44 61 / 0 0 10 50
TROY 32 60 43 67 / 0 0 10 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../61/
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