505
FXUS64 KBMX 072342
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
542 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 523 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE
IN EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS EVENING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA OVERNIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL AGAIN FALL TO BELOW
AVERAGE, WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING NIGHTS
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS SOME OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES,
CAUSING SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. PATCHY FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN GEORGIA, WITH
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES THAT IT MAKES IT INTO OUR FAR EAST-
CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG, HOWEVER. NEXT SHORTWAVE IS APPARENT ON RADAR/WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN OVERNIGHT, AND POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TOMORROW. SOME OF THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY GET
TRAPPED UNDER A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION, SO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF
LOW CLOUDS HANG AROUND LONGER TOMORROW THAN SOME MODELS ARE
SHOWING. HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD FOR
TOMORROW.
32/JDAVIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
VERY THICK CLOUD COVER REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION, AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE IN OUR AIRMASS IS CONTAINED IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER OF
CLOUDS. GIVEN IT'S PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE, SOME SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
CHANCES MOVE IN BY TONIGHT. THIS RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WE'VE BEEN MENTIONING FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS,
WITH DRY AIR MOVING QUICKLY BEHIND IT. AS SUCH, RAIN CHANCES WILL
EXIT THE FORECAST UNTIL CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL BEING OUR WARMEST DAYS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ALL BE AHEAD OF A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR PERHAPS OUR COLDEST STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES
YET. ON WEDNESDAY, A VERY DEEP LOW AND TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE
GREAT LAKES, BRINGING A FRIGID AIRMASS WITH IT. OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, A SERIES OF DEEP LOWS WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR PATHS,
WITH EACH LOW DROPPING FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE OTHER. THIS FIRST
SYSTEM WILL WORK THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
NEXT BIG PUSH OVER THE MIDWEST TAKING PLACE ON FRIDAY. LOWS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE TEENS. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION, AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY NOT EVEN CLIMB OUT OF
THE 40'S FOR SOME PEOPLE.
NOW, WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID, THIS FORECAST IS TIED TO THE DEPTH OF
THE TROUGH, AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT DROPS. SO IF ONE OF THESE LOWS
DOESN'T DEEPEN ENOUGH, OR IF ONE OF THEM DOESN'T MATERIALIZE, THEN
THE TROUGH WOULD STAY FARTHER NORTH, KEEPING TEMPERATURES
"WARMER." HOWEVER, THERE IS ALREADY INCREDIBLE CONSISTENCY HERE.
SO EVEN IF IT DOESN'T GET AS COLD AS ADVERTISED, WE WILL STILL BE
LOOKING AT WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION COME
THIS TIME NEXT WEEKEND.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
CIGS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR TO IFR WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE PRESENT,
ESPECIALLY NEAR AUO RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
CIGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER BACK DOWN TO IFR THIS EVENING, AND LIFR IN
SPOTS ESPECIALLY AUO. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. FOR MONDAY, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. CIGS
WILL LIFT TO MVFR BY MID-MORNING, BUT MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST MUCH
OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY AT AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT, AS DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH THAT BEING
SAID, MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50% INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AND
GIVEN ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN
LITTLE TO NONE FOR THE NEXT SIX DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 40 49 26 53 / 80 0 0 0
ANNISTON 41 50 29 54 / 90 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 42 49 29 53 / 90 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 44 52 29 55 / 90 0 0 0
CALERA 41 52 29 55 / 80 0 0 0
AUBURN 43 54 34 53 / 70 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 44 56 31 55 / 70 0 0 0
TROY 45 55 31 55 / 70 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...32/JDAVIS
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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