211
FXUS64 KBMX 081138
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
538 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 537 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
- LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL AGAIN FALL TO BELOW
AVERAGE, WITH A PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING NIGHTS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
LIGHT RAIN IS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY 6-7 AM. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, HOWEVER, AND THE
REGION SHOULD STAY SOCKED IN MUCH OF THE DAY. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH CEILINGS LIFTING. WE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP EACH DAY THIS WEEK, GOING FROM UPPER
40S TO MID 50S TODAY TO LOW TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TONIGHT, IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA, WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
CURRENTLY, LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK.
MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF THE FORECASTED CHANCE OF RAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BUT I HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
NOW AS A TROUGH SWINGS BY TO THE NORTH. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A GOOD BIT COOLER THAN THE NIGHTS PRECEDING THEM, AND
WILL RESEMBLE TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE SUBJECT TO
MODERATION OR SLIGHT DEEPENING BASED ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A DEEP
UPPER LOW EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IT IS WORTH NOTING WITH
THIS FORECAST UPDATE THAT, DESPITE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINING
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES, THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS STRUGGLE TO BRING BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES INTO
ANY OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THAT IS TO SAY THAT
THE FORECAST ISN'T YET A SLAM DUNK FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND STILL
DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.
12
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
RAIN HAS ENDED AT ALL SITES. IFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE AT MOST SITES
AND WILL SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING TO MVFR BETWEEN 15Z TO 18Z.
CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND RETURNING TO
VFR BY THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
BECOME LESS THAN 7 KTS AFTER 3 TO 6Z.
16
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH
LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED. WITH THAT BEING SAID, MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 40% INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AND GIVEN ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE FOR THE NEXT SIX DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 49 24 53 33 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 51 27 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 50 27 53 37 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 52 28 55 36 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 53 27 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 54 30 53 35 / 10 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 55 29 54 33 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 54 30 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...16
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