712
FXUS64 KBMX 082337
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
537 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 531 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
- LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR NEARLY ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL AGAIN FALL TO BELOW
AVERAGE, WITH A PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING NIGHTS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUDCOVER OVERNIGHT AND ITS
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AS WINDS GO CALM. IN GENERAL, LOOKING AT
WHERE THE BREAKS ARE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CLOUDS HANGING
ON GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 WITH MORE CLEARING EAST OF
I-65. HAVE BUMPED UP LOW TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES, WHILE THE COOLEST READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE
NORTHEAST. MAY NEED TO BUMP THESE UP FURTHER IN SOME AREAS. IN
AREAS THAT DO CLEAR, THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG.
32/JDAVIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
GOOD NEWS, BAD NEWS. THE BAD NEWS IS, TODAY IS GOING TO BE ANOTHER
CLOUDY, DREARY DAY GIVEN THE COOL TEMPERATURES AND LOW CLOUDS.
THANKFULLY, THESE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY MIX OUT BY TOMORROW MORNING AS
DRY AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
MEANS SUNNY SKIES WILL FINALLY RETURN TO THE REGION, WITH CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH THAT BEING
SAID, CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
IF YOU REMEMBER IN MY DISCUSSION YESTERDAY, I MENTIONED THAT THE
COLD WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
TROUGH ENDS UP DROPPING. EVEN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS ALREADY BACKED OFF ON THE DEEP, SECONDARY LOW THAT
WOULD HAVE PUSHED THIS TROUGH WELL INTO THE REGION. NOW, THIS IS
SOMEWHAT EXPECTED GIVEN THAT WE'RE STILL SIX DAYS OUT, AND THIS IS
QUITE LITERALLY AN EBB AND FLOW FORECAST GIVEN THE NATURE OF LOW
PRESSURES. IT'S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THIS HAPPENS 12 MORE TIMES THE
NEXT SIX DAYS. SUPER COLD ONE DAY, MORE "MILD" THE NEXT. AS SUCH,
THE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON, IT'S JUST A MATTER OF "HOW LOW CAN WE GO?"
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL INDICATES AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WITH SOME BREAKS. THE MOST NOTABLE BREAK IS
ACROSS EAST ALABAMA AND GEORGIA DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
APPALACHIANS, WITH SMALLER BREAKS FURTHER TO THE WEST.
PROBABILITIES FROM THE HREF FAVOR KEEPING THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND AT
BHM/EET/TCL THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH BASES LOWERING TO IFR. THERE
IS A LOWER PROBABILITY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO, HOWEVER, WHERE
CEILING SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. IF THIS HAPPENS THEN THERE WOULD
BE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG.
HAVE SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR AT MGM/AUO TOMORROW MORNING, WITH
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR THE CLOUD DECK TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS MGM, AS WELL AS FOR ANOTHER LOW CLOUD DECK ACROSS GEORGIA
TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARDS AUO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
LATE MORNING TUESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE 40% FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
WEEK, WITH NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. EVEN WITH
NO RAINFALL ANTICIPATED, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LITTLE TO
NON FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK GIVEN WET FUELS. HOWEVER, BY THIS WEEKEND,
FUELS MAY DRY BACK OUT, AND MINRH VALUES MAY DROP BACK INTO THE 30%
RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 26 51 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 28 53 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 29 51 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 31 53 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 28 54 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 31 52 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 31 53 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 31 53 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...32/JDAVIS
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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