099
FXUS64 KBMX 091738
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1138 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1132 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR RAIN UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
AS OF WRITING, THE SUN IS FINALLY OUT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
HOWEVER, IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SWATH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS IS PUSHING INTO THE NW PART OF THE STATE AS A H5 VORT MAX
SWINGS THROUGH. THESE CLOUDS SHOULDN'T LINGER FOR TOO LONG AS
RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH WITH LITTLE IMPACT AS THERE WILL BE LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND
AS OUR NEXT UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. WE WILL
SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ON
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT KICKS SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUR
BEST RAIN CHANCES COME DURING THAT TIMEFRAME AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDER AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. WE QUICKLY DRY OUT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN.
TO QUICKLY TOUCH ON TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND WILL KICK IN
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH
THAT SAID, WE WILL SEE A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY BUT WE QUICKLY
WARM BACK UP. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS IN STORE BEHIND SUNDAY'S FROPA.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, LESS THAN 5 KNOTS, OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH
LATE TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF SOUTHWEST BY 16-17Z
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS LIKELY. WITH THAT SAID, THERE ARE LOW
CHANCES FOR MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AT BHM/TCL/EET
AND AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE AREAWIDE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MINRHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40% FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WE'LL SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY, SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY THEN
NORTHERLY WITH OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 51 31 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 53 34 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 51 36 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 54 34 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 54 33 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 52 34 58 36 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 53 32 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 54 31 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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