019
FXUS64 KBMX 092358
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
558 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 535 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE IN
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN SOME AREAS BUT PROBABILITY OF ANY IMPACTS
FROM FREEZING FOG IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR RAIN UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
A BLOB OF LOW CLOUDS HUNG AROUND MOST OF THE DAY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CHATTAHOOCHEE VALLEY, AND IS CURRENTLY SHRINKING ACROSS SW
GEORGIA. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS, HRRR DATA, AND HREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATE MEDIUM CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPING IN OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT NEAR THIS ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING IN SOME OF THESE AREAS,
ESPECIALLY RUSSELL AND BARBOUR COUNTIES, IF VISIBILITIES DROP
BELOW 5/8 MILE IT WOULD MEET THE DEFINITION FOR FREEZING FOG. WILL
MONITOR OVERNIGHT FOR ANY NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY/FREEZING
FOG ADVISORY. GIVEN THE WARM GROUND CONDITIONS, CHANCES FOR ANY
IMPACTS ARE VERY LOW AT THIS TIME, WITH JUST A SLIM CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SLICK SPOT ON A BRIDGE.
32/JDAVIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
AS OF WRITING, THE SUN IS FINALLY OUT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
HOWEVER, IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SWATH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS IS PUSHING INTO THE NW PART OF THE STATE AS A H5 VORT MAX
SWINGS THROUGH. THESE CLOUDS SHOULDN'T LINGER FOR TOO LONG AS
RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH WITH LITTLE IMPACT AS THERE WILL BE LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND
AS OUR NEXT UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. WE WILL
SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ON
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT KICKS SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUR
BEST RAIN CHANCES COME DURING THAT TIMEFRAME AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDER AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. WE QUICKLY DRY OUT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN.
TO QUICKLY TOUCH ON TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND WILL KICK IN
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH
THAT SAID, WE WILL SEE A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY BUT WE QUICKLY
WARM BACK UP. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS IN STORE BEHIND SUNDAY'S FROPA.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
SMALL BLOB OF LOW CLOUDS IN SW GEORGIA CONTINUES TO SHRINK, BUT IS
INDICATIVE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THERE AND INTO SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. BEGINNING TO SEE SOME BETTER SIGNALS
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM THE HRRR/NAM/HREF PROBABILITIES WITH
MEDIUM CHANCES OF IMPACTING MGM/AUO. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MVFR VIS
TOWARDS SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AT THOSE SITES WITH A TEMPO OF IFR.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION ELSEWHERE. A
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 25KTS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENHANCED
ALONG THE FRONT BUT PROBABILITY OF ANY MVFR CIGS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS LOW.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
MINRHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40% FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WE'LL SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY, SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY THEN
NORTHERLY WITH OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 31 58 29 50 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 34 58 32 51 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 36 58 32 51 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 34 61 33 54 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 33 60 32 54 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 34 58 36 53 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 32 61 35 55 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 31 62 36 55 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...32/JDAVIS
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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