364
FXUS64 KBMX 100530
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1130 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1128 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE IN
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN SOME AREAS BUT
PROBABILITY OF ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING FOG IS VERY LOW AT
THIS TIME.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR RAIN UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH MIDWEST TODAY, PUSHING A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AL LATER THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LOW WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS LIMITED. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS TRIED TO INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA, THOUGH I'VE LEFT MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SCENARIO. LIKELY THE MOST
NOTICEABLE IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE INCREASED WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY, SHIFTING MORE
SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY LEADING TO A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WE REACH
THE END OF THE WEEK. OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH LIFTING
NORTHWARD AS AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT AND STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL AL.
THIS COULD LEAD TO LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
BUT THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DRIER FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS,
SO ANY PRECIP MAY BE MORE SCATTERED. THE LONG-AWAITED COLD SURGE HAS
NOW BEEN PUSHED BACK TO MONDAY IN THE GUIDANCE, BUT GIVEN WE HAVEN'T
SEEN A LOT OF CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN, I'D HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS POINT IN
TIME.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD;
HOWEVER, HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HREF SHOWS A 50% CHANCE OF DROPPING BELOW 1 MILE VIS
FOR MGM AND AUO, SO WILL INCLUDE THAT TREND IN THE TAFS. LOOKING
JUST OVER INTO CENTRAL GA, A FEW SITES ARE ALREADY REGISTERING 1/4
MI VIS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR FREEZING WITH THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA, SO WE'LL BE MONITORING FOR FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPMENT IF IT BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER
ROUGHLY 12-15Z WITH INCREASING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
MINRHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 50% TODAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. INCREASED
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, SHIFT NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. MIN RHS THURSDAY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30% RANGE. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED AT
BEST WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 31 58 29 50 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 34 58 32 51 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 36 58 32 51 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 34 61 33 54 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 33 60 32 54 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 33 58 36 53 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 32 61 35 55 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 31 62 36 55 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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