026
FXUS64 KBMX 101136
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
536 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 521 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
- DENSE FOG IS IMPACTING THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MUCH OF THE THIS
AREA, A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THROUGH 8 AM.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR RAIN UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH MIDWEST TODAY, PUSHING A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AL LATER THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LOW WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS LIMITED. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS TRIED TO INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA, THOUGH I'VE LEFT MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SCENARIO. LIKELY THE MOST
NOTICEABLE IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE INCREASED WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY, SHIFTING MORE
SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY LEADING TO A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WE REACH
THE END OF THE WEEK. OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH LIFTING
NORTHWARD AS AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT AND STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL AL.
THIS COULD LEAD TO LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
BUT THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DRIER FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS,
SO ANY PRECIP MAY BE MORE SCATTERED. THE LONG-AWAITED COLD SURGE HAS
NOW BEEN PUSHED BACK TO MONDAY IN THE GUIDANCE, BUT GIVEN WE HAVEN'T
SEEN A LOT OF CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN, I'D HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS POINT IN
TIME.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
PATCHY FOG (MVFR) WILL BE POSSIBLE AT EET FOR THE NEXT HOUR. LIFR
FREEZING FOG IS OCCURRING AT MGM AND AUO RIGHT NOW AND WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z. AFTER 15Z, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS, THEN BY 18Z WINDS WILL BE
SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 18 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 28 KTS. WINDS
CALM TO LESS THAN 19 AFTER 3Z.
16
FIRE WEATHER
MINRHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 50% TODAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. INCREASED
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, SHIFT NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. MIN RHS THURSDAY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30% RANGE. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED AT
BEST WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 57 28 48 30 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 58 30 49 33 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 57 32 49 35 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 60 32 52 35 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 60 32 52 34 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 58 34 51 35 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 61 34 53 33 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 61 35 53 33 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BULLOCK-CHAMBERS-CHILTON-
CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MONTGOMERY-
PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-TALLAPOOSA.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...16
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