441
FXUS64 KBMX 101754
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1154 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1108 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR RAIN UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT TUES)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE
TO SLIDE EWD FROM TX BEHIND IT AND OVER THE SE US ON THU. ALTHOUGH
COOLER TONIGHT INTO THU, WE ARE LOOKING TOWARD NEXT WEEK FOR EVEN
COLDER CONDITIONS. A STRONG 1056MB RIDGE WILL SLIDE SEWD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA ON SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONGER FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH C AL LATE SAT INTO SUN. BEHIND IT, ON SUN A STILL
STRONG 1040 MB RIDGE WILL SLIDE FROM MN/IA INTO ERN CONUS WITH
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING MAYBE SOME TEENS IN THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE FOR LOWS
MON MORNING. WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY TO SEE IF THIS AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE THIS COLD BEHIND THE FRONT, OR IF IT MODIFIES SOME
AS WE GET CLOSER.
08
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH MIDWEST TODAY, PUSHING A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AL LATER THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LOW WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS LIMITED. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS TRIED TO INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA, THOUGH I'VE LEFT MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SCENARIO. LIKELY THE MOST
NOTICEABLE IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE INCREASED WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY, SHIFTING MORE
SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY LEADING TO A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WE REACH
THE END OF THE WEEK. OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH LIFTING
NORTHWARD AS AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT AND STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL AL.
THIS COULD LEAD TO LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
BUT THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DRIER FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS,
SO ANY PRECIP MAY BE MORE SCATTERED. THE LONG-AWAITED COLD SURGE HAS
NOW BEEN PUSHED BACK TO MONDAY IN THE GUIDANCE, BUT GIVEN WE HAVEN'T
SEEN A LOT OF CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN, I'D HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS POINT IN
TIME.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALL OF THE FOG FROM
EARLIER IS GONE. THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND DURING
THE DAY TODAY ALONG WITH SOME VFR SCT/BKN CLOUDS ~ 5KFT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH IT. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON STARTING FROM THE SW 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
18-25KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
TO THE NW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
FROM NW TO SE ACROSS C AL.
08
FIRE WEATHER
MINRHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 50% TODAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. INCREASED
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, SHIFTING
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. MIN RHS THURSDAY WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30% RANGE. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL APPEARS
TO BE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BUT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 57 27 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 57 29 49 34 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 57 30 50 37 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 60 32 53 34 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 60 30 53 34 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 59 33 51 35 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 60 33 54 34 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 61 33 54 33 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08/25/OWEN
AVIATION...08
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