433
FXUS64 KBMX 111821
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1221 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING TO 10-15 DEGREES
(WITH A CHANCE AT A FEW SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH) BY MONDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
LOOK FOR OUR AIRMASS TO MODERATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT DAYTIME,
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING (30S) AND ABOVE NORMAL MILD
READINGS BY AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS OUR
RIDGE NUDGES EWD AHEAD OF OUR UPCOMING POTENT SYSTEM. A 1040MB
RIDGE WILL SLIDE SEWD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ON SAT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH C AL LATE SAT INTO SUN.
BEHIND IT ON SUN, A STRONG 1044 MB RIDGE WILL SLIDE FROM MN/IA
INTO ERN CONUS WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR SOME VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON,
INCLUDING SOME TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF C AL FOR LOWS MON
MORNING. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT WINDS COULD STAY UP AS WELL
AS THE COLD AIRMASS PRESSES SEWD. THIS WILL MEAN LOW WIND CHILLS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY TO SEE IF THIS
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE THIS COLD BEHIND THE FRONT, OR IF IT
MODIFIES SOME AS WE GET CLOSER. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE
THAT WE COULD HAVE OUR FIRST COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SEASON.
(COLD WX ADVISORY IS FOR WIND CHILLS: 0-10 NRN COUNTIES AND 5-15
SRN COUNTIES).
08
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST WED DEC 10 2025
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA
RAIN-FREE THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
THE PATTERN CHANGES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH ALABAMA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE MORE
OF A LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER-
INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. THE MAIN STORY IS THE VERY COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT. A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT REACHING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR SOME OF OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY. MONDAY
MORNING LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S AREA-WIDE.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 24 HOUR FORECAST WITH SURFACE
RIDGING PRESENT OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. LOOK FOR ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL CIRRUS WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBYS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT/VARIABLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGING. THE RIDGE
CENTER WILL SHIFT EWD ON FRI AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. AS A
RESULT, WINDS WILL BECOME SW BY MID MORNING, 13-15Z, ~ 6-9KTS.
08
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINRHS RANGING
FROM 35% - 45%. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT,
BUT WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS MAY BE ON THE LOWER SIDE. MUCH
COLDER AIR BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 49 31 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 49 34 62 39 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 50 37 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 52 35 65 41 / 0 0 0 10
CALERA 53 34 64 40 / 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 52 36 63 45 / 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 54 34 67 45 / 0 0 0 10
TROY 55 34 67 46 / 0 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08/25/OWEN
AVIATION...08
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