058
FXUS64 KBMX 121123
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
523 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 519 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
- COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL AL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING TO 10-15 DEGREES
(WITH A CHANCE AT A FEW SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH) BY MONDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE 60S. ENJOY THAT WHILE YOU CAN - A WEAK BOUNDARY
THAT IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AL WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ON SATURDAY, BUT WE'RE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH LESS THAN 0.25"
EXPECTED.
THE MORE IMPACTFUL STORY IN THIS IS THE VERY COLD CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIR MASS THAT IS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL EASILY BE SOME OF
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WE'VE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
MONDAY WON'T BE MUCH BETTER WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING IN
THE MID-TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AL. WIND CHILLS WILL RUN
GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WE'LL HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR NEXT SYSTEM, BUT GUIDANCE HAS FLUCTUATED QUITE
A BIT ON THE TIMING, SO THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5-9KTS. HREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE AROUND A 30-40% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT, HIGHEST AT MGM, AS A FRONT STALLS OVER
THE AREA. THESE PROBABILITIES AREN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE MONITORED.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A VERY
DRY AIR MASS BEHIND IT. NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20MPH AND RHS IN THE 30% RANGE,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S-40S. LOW RHS WILL BE THE
STORY FOR MONDAY AS THE DRY AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 40.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 62 34 60 29 / 0 0 10 30
ANNISTON 63 40 63 33 / 0 0 10 40
BIRMINGHAM 62 41 62 31 / 0 0 10 40
TUSCALOOSA 64 41 62 33 / 0 0 10 40
CALERA 64 41 65 33 / 0 0 10 40
AUBURN 63 46 65 43 / 0 10 10 50
MONTGOMERY 66 47 68 43 / 0 10 20 50
TROY 66 47 68 46 / 0 10 20 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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