068
FXUS64 KBMX 122335
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
535 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 523 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
- COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL AL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING TO 10-15
DEGREES (WITH A CHANCE AT A FEW SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH).
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A RETURN OF SOME CLOUDS FROM THE S/SW TONIGHT
WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NW AND LIKELY
STALLING TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND FIZZLING OUT. MILD TEMPS
TODAY INTO SAT WILL HELP FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF A MORE POTENT 2ND COLD FRONT. A 1040MB RIDGE WILL SLIDE SEWD
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ON SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THIS COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH C AL LATE SAT INTO SUN. BEHIND IT ON SUN, A
STRONG 1044 MB RIDGE WILL SLIDE FROM MN/IA INTO ERN CONUS WITH
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON, INCLUDING SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF C AL FOR LOWS MON MORNING. WINDS WILL STAY
UP AS WELL WITH TIGHT GRADIENTS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE COLD
AIRMASS PRESSES SEWD. THIS WILL MEAN LOW WIND CHILLS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE THAT WE
COULD HAVE NEED OF OUR FIRST COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SEASON
AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUN. (COLD WX ADVISORY CRITERIA IS FOR WIND
CHILLS: 0-10 NRN COUNTIES AND 5-15 SRN COUNTIES).
CONDITIONS MODERATE UPWARD AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS A TAD OVER THE SE US TUE AND SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO
THE ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK. THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER WILL BE
IN FULL SWING WITH 40S MON FOR HIGHS, 50S TUE, AND 60S TO LOWER
70S BY THU. RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SYSTEM.
08
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE 60S. ENJOY THAT WHILE YOU CAN - A WEAK BOUNDARY
THAT IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AL WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ON SATURDAY, BUT WE'RE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH LESS THAN 0.25"
EXPECTED.
THE MORE IMPACTFUL STORY IN THIS IS THE VERY COLD CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIR MASS THAT IS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL EASILY BE SOME OF
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WE'VE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
MONDAY WON'T BE MUCH BETTER WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING IN
THE MID-TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AL. WIND CHILLS WILL RUN
GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WE'LL HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR NEXT SYSTEM, BUT GUIDANCE HAS FLUCTUATED QUITE
A BIT ON THE TIMING, SO THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING
IN TOMORROW. THEREFORE, HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF MVFR/IFR AT
MGM/AUO AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY. CLOUD DECK WILL SPREAD
NORTH TO BHM/EET/TCL DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS BEHIND IT. NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOK FOR 20 FOOT WINDS
10-15 MPH ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 MPH AND RHS IN THE 30-40%
RANGE, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S-40S. LOW RHS
WILL BE THE STORY FOR MONDAY AS THE DRY AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE
REGION, BUT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 40S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 35 63 29 39 / 0 10 40 0
ANNISTON 40 65 34 41 / 0 10 50 0
BIRMINGHAM 41 63 32 39 / 0 10 50 0
TUSCALOOSA 41 64 34 42 / 10 10 50 0
CALERA 41 65 33 43 / 10 10 60 0
AUBURN 45 65 44 50 / 0 10 60 10
MONTGOMERY 47 66 44 52 / 10 10 70 10
TROY 47 68 47 56 / 10 20 60 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08/25/OWEN
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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