635
FXUS64 KBMX 030519
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1119 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1117 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- RAIN CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES (60-70%) THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ANY THREAT
FOR A SEVERE STORM REMAINS VERY LOW.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AL TODAY
LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH, MOST OF
THE RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
BEFORE THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
HIGHER WITH WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED AT SOME POINT TOWARDS THE
SECOND PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED ON THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING, SO WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE SITTING AROUND 30%
IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IS THE
TIMING.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
MESSY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS CONTINUED RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE RAIN. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT,
THOUGH IT MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN BEING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG - EITHER WAY,
EXPECT IFR TO LIFR DURING AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS. MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
SLIDES TO OUR SE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MIN RHS WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 49 60 35 57 / 100 20 0 0
ANNISTON 51 60 37 57 / 100 30 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 51 60 39 57 / 100 20 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 54 63 39 58 / 90 20 0 0
CALERA 53 64 39 60 / 90 30 0 0
AUBURN 54 66 44 62 / 90 70 0 0
MONTGOMERY 58 69 46 63 / 80 60 0 0
TROY 58 70 46 64 / 70 60 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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