651
FXUS64 KBMX 031216
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
616 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 602 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
- RAIN CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES (60-70%) THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ANY THREAT
FOR A SEVERE STORM REMAINS VERY LOW.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AL TODAY
LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH, MOST OF
THE RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
BEFORE THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
HIGHER WITH WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED AT SOME POINT TOWARDS THE
SECOND PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED ON THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING, SO WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE SITTING AROUND 30%
IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IS THE
TIMING.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
CIGS RANGE FROM LIFR TO MVFR WITH AND BEHIND THE RAIN. REDUCED
VSBYS ARE AROUND AS WELL WITH AND BEHIND THE RAINS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO MVFR ~18-19Z. RAIN WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY FOR THE SRN SITES (MGM/AUO) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO GET SOME DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA, CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY NOT GO TO VFR UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING (3-4Z) FOR BHM/TCL/EET. IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR OUT
FOR MGM/AUO, AND THEY ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR ALL NIGHT.
08
FIRE WEATHER
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MIN RHS WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 60 34 57 33 / 10 0 0 0
ANNISTON 61 36 57 36 / 30 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 60 37 57 39 / 10 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 62 37 59 37 / 20 0 0 0
CALERA 64 37 60 37 / 20 0 0 0
AUBURN 66 44 62 43 / 70 10 0 0
MONTGOMERY 69 44 63 42 / 60 0 0 0
TROY 71 46 64 43 / 60 10 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...08
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