448
FXUS64 KBMX 040541
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1139 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
- A PERIOD OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE
WEEK AHEAD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY
WEDNESDAY, BUT STALLS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH ROUGHLY THURSDAY. THIS
COULD LEAD TO BROAD LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOW RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN JUST HOW MUCH COVERAGE ACTUALLY
MATERIALIZES. THERE'S INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY, BUT THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING AT
THIS RANGE. A DEEP TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AL AT SOME POINT
FRIDAY. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM NEEDS
TO BE WATCHED IN COMING DAYS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER,
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN COMING DAYS FOR ANY CHANGES.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
MOST SITES. SO FAR, THIS APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW FOG, SO WE MAY SEE
LOW VIS BOUNCE UP AND DOWN FROM ONE OB TO THE NEXT, BUT OVERALL THE
TREND SHOULD BE LOW VIS FOR MOST SITES THROUGH ROUGHLY 11-12Z. AFTER
THAT, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MIN RHS REMAIN
IN THE 40-60% RANGE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 34 59 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 37 60 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 36 58 43 64 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 37 60 42 66 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 37 61 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 45 63 46 65 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 43 64 45 67 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 45 65 45 66 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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