123
FXUS64 KBMX 041128
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
528 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 522 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
- A PERIOD OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE
WEEK AHEAD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY
WEDNESDAY, BUT STALLS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH ROUGHLY THURSDAY. THIS
COULD LEAD TO BROAD LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOW RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN JUST HOW MUCH COVERAGE ACTUALLY
MATERIALIZES. THERE'S INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY, BUT THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING AT
THIS RANGE. A DEEP TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AL AT SOME POINT
FRIDAY. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM NEEDS
TO BE WATCHED IN COMING DAYS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER,
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN COMING DAYS FOR ANY CHANGES.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS PATCHY DENSE FOG ATTEMPTS TO SETTLE IN.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED IFR/LIFR VIS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VFR RETURNS BY 14Z. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL STATUS AND
PATCHY FOG MONDAY MORNING. OPTED FOR A MVFR TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS
TIME. GREATEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MIN RHS REMAIN
IN THE 40-60% RANGE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 59 37 64 44 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 60 40 65 47 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 58 43 64 50 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 60 42 66 49 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 61 41 66 48 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 63 46 65 50 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 64 45 67 51 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 65 45 66 50 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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