594
FXUS64 KBMX 041748
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1148 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1139 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- MEDIUM CHANCES OF PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST
BY SUNDAY MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
- A PERIOD OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
SUNSHINE HAS RETURNED TO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH A PLEASANT AFTERNOON
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE BROAD
REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE EAST COAST TOMORROW
WHICH WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS BROAD, LOW
AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE GULF. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WARMING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WELL-
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURNING AGAIN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AFTER
TOMORROW.
A MID TO LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, A MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS ON THURSDAY AND QUICKLY EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
EVOLUTION HAS THE MARKINGS OF A SEVERE RISK, BUT THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FROM GLOBAL MODELING STILL LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE AND
TEMPORALLY INCONSISTENT (NOT UNUSUAL THIS FAR OUT). WE'RE JUST
MONITORING TRENDS FOR NOW.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DISSIPATED THIS MORNING LEAVING US WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING, BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE IS INDICATING FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
AND IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, PRIMARILY AFFECTING MGM/AUO
BUT MAY EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS EET. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, AND VFR SHOULD RETURN NEAR THE
END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A LIGHT NORTH WIND TODAY WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AT LESS THAN 5
KTS.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MIN RHS REMAIN
IN THE 40-60% RANGE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 60 36 64 44 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 62 40 65 47 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 60 42 63 49 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 62 42 65 48 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 64 41 65 48 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 65 46 64 50 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 66 44 67 51 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 66 45 67 50 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86/MARTIN
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
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