181
FXUS64 KBMX 042326
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
526 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 457 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- MEDIUM CHANCES OF PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST
BY SUNDAY MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
- A PERIOD OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
SUNSHINE HAS RETURNED TO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH A PLEASANT AFTERNOON
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE BROAD
REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE EAST COAST TOMORROW
WHICH WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS BROAD, LOW
AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE GULF. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WARMING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WELL-
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURNING AGAIN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AFTER
TOMORROW.
A MID TO LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, A MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS ON THURSDAY AND QUICKLY EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
EVOLUTION HAS THE MARKINGS OF A SEVERE RISK, BUT THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FROM GLOBAL MODELING STILL LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE AND
TEMPORALLY INCONSISTENT (NOT UNUSUAL THIS FAR OUT). WE'RE JUST
MONITORING TRENDS FOR NOW.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 457 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT, WITH MODELS
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILING
AT ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY MORNING. AREAS IN THE SOUTH, INCLUDING
KMGM AND KAUO COULD REACH AS LOW AS IFR CONDITIONS, WITH A FEW
MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBILITY FOR LIFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY MID
MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES, MODELS ARE TRENDING LOWER WITH CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES, SO TRIED TO SHOW THAT TREND IN THE TAFS.
RIGHT NOW KEPT CEILINGS AS VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR IF MODELS CONTINUE ON
THE LOW LEVEL HIGH HUMIDITY TREND.
24
FIRE WEATHER
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MIN RHS REMAIN
IN THE 40-60% RANGE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 36 64 44 66 / 0 0 0 10
ANNISTON 40 65 47 67 / 0 0 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 42 63 49 67 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 42 65 48 70 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 41 65 48 70 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 46 64 50 69 / 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 44 67 51 74 / 0 0 0 10
TROY 45 67 50 73 / 0 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86/MARTIN
AVIATION...24
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