014
FXUS64 KBMX 050355
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
955 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 952 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- MEDIUM CHANCES OF PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST
BY SUNDAY MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
SOUTHERLY LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. MODELS HINT AT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING MONDAY, BUT CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL. WILL
ASSESS IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED OR IF THE LOWERED CLOUD
DECK WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE, CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. FORCING WILL BE LIMITED AS THE STATE WILL BE TOO FAR FROM
THE PARENT LOW, WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS COULD BE BREEZY ACROSS THE STATE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AS A MIDLEVEL
JET MOVES TO THE EAST WITH THAT FRONT.
BY WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE GULF, WITH THE POSITION
OF THE HIGH ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BRING WARMER AIR TO THE
STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN THE 70S ALMOST AREA WIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THURSDAY, A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN US WILL BRING A LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN CONSENSUS OVER THIS FEATURE, MODELS DIVERGE
FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND FRONTAL FEATURES AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST AFTER THAT INITIAL MOVEMENT. RAIN COULD INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IF THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OR CONTINUE
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH AND LETTING A BOUNDARY LINGER NEAR/OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL ASSESS AS WE GET CLOSER.
24
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN HIGH, ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN VISIBILITIES IN THESE AREAS, WITH LOWERING OF CEILINGS
TO AT LEAST MVFR AT KBHM AND IFR AT REST OF THE TAF SITES. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, AND TAFS SHOW
A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT INTO VFR CEILINGS FOR EACH TAF SITE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, AND THEREFORE LEFT TAF WITH THE LOW END OF VFR
FOR NOW. BY LATE EVENING MONDAY, CEILINGS COULD LOWER AGAIN TO
MVFR.
24
FIRE WEATHER
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MIN RHS REMAIN
IN THE 40-60% RANGE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 36 64 44 66 / 0 0 0 10
ANNISTON 39 65 47 67 / 0 0 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 43 64 49 67 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 42 66 48 70 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 42 66 48 70 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 46 65 50 69 / 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 46 68 51 74 / 0 0 0 10
TROY 46 68 50 73 / 0 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...24
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