800
FXUS64 KBMX 051136
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
536 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 529 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- MEDIUM CHANCES OF PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST
BY SUNDAY MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
SOUTHERLY LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. MODELS HINT AT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING MONDAY, BUT CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL. WILL
ASSESS IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED OR IF THE LOWERED CLOUD
DECK WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE, CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. FORCING WILL BE LIMITED AS THE STATE WILL BE TOO FAR FROM
THE PARENT LOW, WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS COULD BE BREEZY ACROSS THE STATE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AS A MIDLEVEL
JET MOVES TO THE EAST WITH THAT FRONT.
BY WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE GULF, WITH THE POSITION
OF THE HIGH ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BRING WARMER AIR TO THE
STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN THE 70S ALMOST AREA WIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THURSDAY, A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN US WILL BRING A LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN CONSENSUS OVER THIS FEATURE, MODELS DIVERGE
FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND FRONTAL FEATURES AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST AFTER THAT INITIAL MOVEMENT. RAIN COULD INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IF THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OR CONTINUE
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH AND LETTING A BOUNDARY LINGER NEAR/OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL ASSESS AS WE GET CLOSER.
24
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE HAD A HARD TIME SETTLING IN
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. GOES NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY
REVEALS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THINNING OUT AS PATCHY FOG ATTEMPTS TO
DEVELOP. THIS WILL LEAVE US WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FOR MVFR/IFR FOG/CEILINGS. FOR NOW, HAVE PREVAILED VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE RISE THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
PLACE. HREF GUIDANCE HINTS AT MVFR DEVELOPING EARLIER IN THE DAY
AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS, OPTED TO NOT INTRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST UNTIL THIS EVENING.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY. AMENDMENTS WILL BE
LIKELY TODAY ESPECIALLY ONCE CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MIN RHS REMAIN
IN THE 40-60% RANGE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 64 45 65 49 / 0 0 10 20
ANNISTON 65 47 67 52 / 0 0 10 30
BIRMINGHAM 64 49 65 53 / 0 0 10 20
TUSCALOOSA 66 49 70 53 / 0 0 10 10
CALERA 66 49 69 52 / 0 0 10 20
AUBURN 65 51 69 56 / 0 0 10 20
MONTGOMERY 68 51 73 57 / 0 0 10 20
TROY 68 49 73 56 / 0 0 10 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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