458
FXUS64 KBMX 051748
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1148 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1146 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
SOUTHERLY LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. MODELS HINT AT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING MONDAY, BUT CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL. WILL
ASSESS IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED OR IF THE LOWERED CLOUD
DECK WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE, CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. FORCING WILL BE LIMITED AS THE STATE WILL BE TOO FAR FROM
THE PARENT LOW, WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS COULD BE BREEZY ACROSS THE STATE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AS A MIDLEVEL
JET MOVES TO THE EAST WITH THAT FRONT.
BY WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE GULF, WITH THE POSITION
OF THE HIGH ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BRING WARMER AIR TO THE
STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN THE 70S ALMOST AREA WIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THURSDAY, A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN US WILL BRING A LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN CONSENSUS OVER THIS FEATURE, MODELS DIVERGE
FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND FRONTAL FEATURES AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST AFTER THAT INITIAL MOVEMENT. RAIN COULD INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IF THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OR CONTINUE
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH AND LETTING A BOUNDARY LINGER NEAR/OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL ASSESS AS WE GET CLOSER.
24
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR
CIGS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT AT AUO WHILE MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED IN AT
THE OTHER TERMINALS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY LATE
AFTERNOON BUT WITH ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR
CIGS RETURNING TUESDAY MORNING, WITH MEDIUM CHANCES FOR FOG AND
DRIZZLE.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MIN RHS REMAIN
IN THE 40-60% RANGE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 63 47 64 48 / 0 10 20 20
ANNISTON 64 48 65 51 / 0 10 20 30
BIRMINGHAM 62 51 65 52 / 0 10 20 20
TUSCALOOSA 63 51 68 52 / 0 10 10 10
CALERA 63 50 66 52 / 0 10 10 20
AUBURN 61 50 66 56 / 0 10 10 20
MONTGOMERY 65 52 72 57 / 0 10 10 20
TROY 65 51 71 56 / 0 10 10 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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