866
FXUS64 KBMX 060529
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1129 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1121 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEK.
- A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN SOME PERSISTENT LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, CURRENTLY THICKEST IN WEST
ALABAMA AND FAR SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. HAVE TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOWER FOR TODAY, BUT TEMPERATURES MAY END UP LOWER
THAN FORECAST WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST AND HIGHER WHERE CLEARING
OCCURS. A SHORTWAVE IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT
EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING.
MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO LOW-LEVELS WITH A LOW LEVEL JET
AIDING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF
WHILE THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY PRECIP
BEING MORE DRIZZLY IN NATURE. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, BUT MOST SPOTS SHOULD AT LEAST REACH
THE 60S IF NOT THE LOWER 70S (SOUTH). THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES, BUT ANYWHERE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN.
A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CAUSE AN UPPER LOW
INITIALLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO OPEN UP INTO A SHORTWAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OZARKS ON THURSDAY, ALONG WITH A
SURFACE LOW. WE SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH ONLY LOW
RAIN CHANCES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
FORCING WITH THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE GENERALLY REMAINS TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
REMAINS UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE, WHILE
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL TO OUR WEST.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
INDICATE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
TROUGH, LIKELY RELATED TO HOW MUCH PHASING BETWEEN NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES OCCURS AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. LOOKING AT THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT, WHICH
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE, A TYPICAL COOL
SEASON HIGH SHEAR, LOW (OR VERY LOW) CAPE ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT, BUT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE
LACKING, UNLESS A STRONGER SECONDARY SURFACE LOW CAN FORM FROM
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE, IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY'S SYSTEM. SOMEWHAT
BETTER INSTABILITY LIES TO OUR WEST, AND 65F DEW POINTS MAY
STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TOO FAR INTO OUR AREA UNLESS THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS VERIFY. LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE WEAK. GIVEN THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT THIS FAR OUT AND THE UNCERTAINTY,
WILL HOLD OFF ON FORMAL SEVERE MESSAGING AT THIS TIME. RAIN
CHANCES LINGER INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
MOVE IN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT IS SOMEWHAT
TRICKY, MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS.
BUT ONCE CEILINGS DROP BELOW 1000 FT, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THEY
SHOULD STAY DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AS OF 2330 UTC
TAF ISSUANCE TIME, AUO IS ALREADY SOCKED IN AND EET IS ON ITS WAY.
I EXPECT MGM AND TCL TO DROP NEXT. BHM CLIMATOLOGICALLY TENDS TO
TAKE LONGER TO ACQUIRE LOW STRATUS, BUT EVEN THERE THE MODEL
SIGNALS ARE PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD.
AFTER SUNRISE, THE ISSUE THEN BECOMES HOW LONG CONDITIONS REMAIN
IFR. THE MODELS HERE GIVE SOMEWHAT MIXED SIGNALS, SO I'VE KEPT THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST INTACT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AROUND THE 1800 UTC
TIME FRAME.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MIN RHS REMAIN
IN THE 40-80% RANGE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 46 64 49 69 / 0 20 10 0
ANNISTON 48 66 51 71 / 0 20 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 48 65 52 69 / 0 10 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 45 71 52 73 / 0 10 0 0
CALERA 47 69 52 74 / 0 10 10 0
AUBURN 48 69 57 73 / 0 10 10 0
MONTGOMERY 51 73 57 75 / 0 10 0 10
TROY 50 73 57 75 / 0 10 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...32/JDAVIS
AVIATION.../61/
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