556
FXUS64 KBMX 060832
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
232 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 215 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
- WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEK.
- A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM WILL KEEP CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WE WILL START OUT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING, WITH SOME DENSE FOG ALREADY
BEING REPORTED IN SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND IN NEARBY WEST
CENTRAL GEORGIA. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THIS AREA, AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY NORTHWARD
EXPANSION OF THE DENSE FOG LATER THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE GLOOMY
START, WARM ADVECTION WILL STILL HELP TO BRING HIGHER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT, ADDED
SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH TEMPS EVEN WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY (AS WELL AS TRICKY TO
MESSAGE), AS THE POPS TODAY ARE TIED TO THE CHANCE THAT PATCHES
OF DRIZZLE COULD LEAD TO MEASURABLE RAIN.
THE WARM SPELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING MORE ROBUST
RAIN CHANCES TO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND (ESPECIALLY) FRIDAY, WITH
THE APPROACH OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY STORMY PERIOD WILL
LIKELY COME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES, WITH PERHAPS AN INCH TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN THERE.
THE COLD FRONT ULTIMATELY PUSHES THROUGH AND EXITS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN THOSE OF THE PRECEDING
SEVERAL DAYS. BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE NOTHING OUT OF THE
ORDINARY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN
FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
/61/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT IS SOMEWHAT
TRICKY, MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS.
BUT ONCE CEILINGS DROP BELOW 1000 FT, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THEY
SHOULD STAY DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AS OF 2330 UTC
TAF ISSUANCE TIME, AUO IS ALREADY SOCKED IN AND EET IS ON ITS WAY.
I EXPECT MGM AND TCL TO DROP NEXT. BHM CLIMATOLOGICALLY TENDS TO
TAKE LONGER TO ACQUIRE LOW STRATUS, BUT EVEN THERE THE MODEL
SIGNALS ARE PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD.
AFTER SUNRISE, THE ISSUE THEN BECOMES HOW LONG CONDITIONS REMAIN
IFR. THE MODELS HERE GIVE SOMEWHAT MIXED SIGNALS, SO I'VE KEPT THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST INTACT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AROUND THE 1800 UTC
TIME FRAME.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MIN RHS REMAIN
IN THE 40-80% RANGE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 64 49 69 47 / 20 10 0 0
ANNISTON 66 51 71 50 / 20 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 65 52 69 53 / 10 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 71 52 73 52 / 10 0 0 0
CALERA 69 52 74 50 / 10 10 0 0
AUBURN 69 57 73 53 / 10 10 0 0
MONTGOMERY 73 57 75 54 / 10 0 10 0
TROY 73 57 75 55 / 10 0 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BULLOCK-CHAMBERS-DALLAS-ELMORE-LEE-
LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-
TALLAPOOSA.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../61/
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page