629
FXUS64 KBMX 062041
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
241 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 237 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
- WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEK, APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL AL,
BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
REST OF TODAY:
IT'S A CLOUDY, DREARY, AND MILD DAY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WHICH SEEMS TO BE A PREVAILING THEME SO FAR THIS
WINTER SEASON. WE'VE GOT JUST ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT ONGOING IN
THE LOWER LEVELS TO KEEP THE LOW STRATUS CLOUD LAYER TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION ALOFT. AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE ALSO
DEVELOPED, MOSTLY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR THAT HAVE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO UNDER 3 MILES OVER THE LAST 3 TO 4 HOURS. WITH A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF ANY DRIZZLE TO OFFICIALLY MEASURE IN THE
BUCKET, WE'LL KEEP THE OFFICIAL RAIN CHANCES UNDER 10 PERCENT BUT
KEEP AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME
MIXING HAS BEEN ALLOWED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH
OF I-85, AND LOCATIONS SUCH AS MONTGOMERY, TROY, AND EUFAULA
SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH 3PM. EVERYONE ELSE WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY OVERCAST, WITH VERY SLOW RISING OF CEILINGS EXPECTED
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MIXING IN AT THE 700MB LEVEL. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 AND
U.S. 80 CORRIDORS. GRADIENT WINDS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10 AND 15MPH WITH THE SYSTEM
APPROACHING NEARBY FROM THE ARKLATEX, BUT THAT ACTIVITY WILL SCOOT
WELL OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 AND U.S.
80 CORRIDORS.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE OR CALM AS A COLD
FRONT STALLS CLOSE TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION AND UPPER
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. MEANWHILE, FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. AT THIS POINT WE'VE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY, AS WE'RE EXPECTING A COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST OBSERVATION
TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING. FOLKS IN HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS WILL
MOST LIKELY BE SOCKED IN WITH DENSE FOG BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE
TRENDS, SO I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF AN ADVISORY IS ISSUED THIS
EVENING. FOLKS SHOULD KEEP THAT IN MIND IF THEY'RE PLANNING ON
TRAVELING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT VERY MILD RANGING
FROM NEAR 50 DEGREES AT HALEYVILLE TO 60 DEGREES AT EUFAULA.
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FINALLY MIX OUT BY MID- MORNING ON WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW TO SEND
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S, AND PERHAPS MID TO UPPER 70S AT
SELMA AND DEMOPOLIS. HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR EARLY JANUARY
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS WELL, SO WE'LL GET CLOSE TO A FEW
OF THOSE. WE'LL SEE SIMILAR VERY WARM CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS
BROAD RIDGING TAKES HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK:
THE DEEP SOUTH IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WARM
SECTOR BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
EJECTS EASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES.
WE COULD SEE A LOWER-END CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH POTENTIALLY AS LATE AS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF BIRMINGHAM. A POTENT
500MB VORT MAX, ALONG WITH A 925MB JET OF 40+ KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR FOR DECENT
HODOGRAPHS AND SRH BETWEEN 250 AND 300 M2/S2. IN ADDITION, A
SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
AND MOVE NORTHEAST. WHERE THE HIGH SHEAR OVERLAPS WITH LOW CAPE
VALUES IS WHERE THE LOW-END CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE,
ROUGHLY FROM DEMOPOLIS TO BIRMINGHAM TO GADSDEN WESTWARD. BEST
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHWESTERN
5 COUNTIES OF LAMAR, FAYETTE, WALKER, WINSTON, AND MARION. WE'LL
KEEP AN EYE ON GUIDANCE TRENDS AS WE GET CLOSER, BUT FOR NOW WE'RE
EXPECTING THIS SYSTEM TO BRIEFLY GLANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE. THIS COLD
FRONT IS COMING THROUGH LATER ON TODAY'S GUIDANCE RUNS, NOW ON
TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. WITH MOST
DYNAMICS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, THESE STORMS
AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT NOTHING THAT WE CAN'T DEAL WITH THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. AFTER A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY, GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE MONDAY MORNING AND A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST 21Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MGM AND AUO WHERE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT. LOW STRATUS AND -DZ WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL
REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOW MIXING TO
VFR CATEGORY IS FORECAST THROUGH 00Z AND THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT
FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN.
LOW STRATUS AND REDUCED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z
WEDNESDAY.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MIN RHS REMAIN
IN THE 40-80% RANGE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 52 70 46 71 / 10 0 0 10
ANNISTON 54 71 49 71 / 10 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 54 71 52 71 / 10 0 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 55 73 53 74 / 10 0 0 10
CALERA 54 74 51 72 / 10 0 0 0
AUBURN 58 73 55 72 / 10 10 0 10
MONTGOMERY 59 76 54 76 / 10 10 0 10
TROY 60 75 54 74 / 10 10 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...56/GDG
AVIATION...56/GDG
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