832
FXUS64 KBMX 070844
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
244 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 154 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
- THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG, WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG,
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD TERRITORY
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVELS 1 AND 2 OUT OF 5)
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
ANOTHER MORNING WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN INTACT THROUGH 15Z. HAVE BEEN WATCHING FOR VISIBILITY DROPS
DOWN AT TROY AND EUFAULA, FOR POSSIBLE DFA AREA EXTENSION. SO FAR
EARLY THIS MORNING, THEY DON'T (YET) REACH CRITERIA.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT A WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
PATTERN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE END OF THIS FIRST WORK
WEEK OF 2026, WITH A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST.
NEXT WEATHER MAKER STILL LOOKS TO COME ON FRIDAY, AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE FIRST SUCH SHORTWAVE ACTUALLY SCOOTS TO ALABAMA'S NORTH ON
THURSDAY, AND GETS SHEARED OUT IN THE PROCESS. THERE'S AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. BUT
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL WAIT UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT AND (MORESO) FRIDAY, WHEN THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY SLOW DOWN OR STALL AS IT
APPROACHES NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON FRIDAY, BEFORE BEING KICKED ALL
THE WAY THROUGH BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY. THIS
SLOWING/STALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS IN
THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA, ON THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES
OR MORE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE AS YOU HEAD
MORE SOUTH AND EAST, BUT ALL PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ARE LIKELY
TO GET AT LEAST A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAIN BEFORE IT COMES TO
AN END LATE SATURDAY.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UNUSUALLY WARM AND
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE INSTABILITY, AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS TIME FRAME. ONE PARTICULAR FEATURE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON IS A LOW LEVEL JET THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST
TO DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND PUNCH RIGHT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
STATE. THIS JET COULD PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF BOTH LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE, WHICH WOULD AID IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL (GIVEN THE INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH
AFTER DARK).
COLD AIR SPILLS BACK INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT DEPARTS TO OUR WEST. DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLE TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
/61/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
MORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BOUNCE AROUND A BIT
THROUGH ABOUT 0800 TO 0900 UTC, BUT I DO THINK THESE RESTRICTIONS
WILL BECOME MORE STEADY STATE AS THE OVERNIGHT WEARS ON.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE AFTER 1200 UTC
WEDNESDAY, BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL CLOSER TO 1800 UTC BEFORE
CEILINGS CAN CLIMB ABOVE 1000 FT. ONCE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR
OR VFR, THERE'S A GREATER CHANCE THAN NOT THAT THEY STAY THERE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MIN RHS REMAIN
IN THE 40-80% RANGE. ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 48 71 59 / 0 0 10 20
ANNISTON 71 51 72 58 / 0 0 10 20
BIRMINGHAM 70 54 71 61 / 0 0 10 30
TUSCALOOSA 72 54 74 60 / 0 0 10 40
CALERA 73 52 73 58 / 0 0 10 30
AUBURN 73 56 72 58 / 10 0 10 10
MONTGOMERY 75 55 76 61 / 10 0 10 20
TROY 75 55 75 59 / 10 0 10 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-
CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../61/
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