137
FXUS64 KBMX 080013
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
613 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 610 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVELS 1/2 OUT OF 5) FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM,
AS WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. LARGER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTIVE BANDING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT, RETURNING TO
BELOW AVERAGE TO START THE NEW WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
WITH PATCHY FOG EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION. THANKFULLY, I DON'T
EXPECTED THIS FOG TO BE AS DENSE, WITH THE BEST PROBABILITIES FOR
DENSE FOG REMAINING IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ANOTHER DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BUT MY CONFIDENCE IS
LOW WHEN IT COMES TO EXACT COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY EVENING, WITH THAT THREAT POTENTIALLY
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. TO GO ALONGSIDE THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT,
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY, PARTICULARLY IN OUR NW COUNTIES
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALREADY RANGE
BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES, WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THINGS
REALLY GETTING UNDERWAY BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TAKES A MORE SW/NE ORIENTATION. WHILE MOST OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER PARAMETERS LOOK RELATIVELY GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR,
THE LINGERING QUESTION HERE IS INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER, WE MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO DESTABILIZE IN
THESE AREAS CLOSEST TO THE FRONT. EVEN A LOT OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS INSTABILITY SUPPRESSION FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
FROM PURELY A SEVERE WEATHER STANDPOINT, SATURDAY AFTERNOON MIGHT BE
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM OR TWO. A LOT OF THE
MORNING GUIDANCES PUTS THE COLD FRONT ALONG OR NEAR I-65 BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WOULD AT LEAST ALLOW FOR A FEW HOUR
WINDOW FOR INSTABILITY TO INCREASE IN OUR SE COUNTIES AS THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. WHILE THE REGION IS CURRENTLY NOT
UNDER ANY KIND OF OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC, I WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED AT
ALL TO SEE SOMETHING GET INTRODUCED FOR THE DAY 3 PERIOD OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS MOST
CONDUCIVE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES, WITH THE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL BEING MORE SECONDARY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS FRONT, WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM HERE,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY,
BEFORE WARMING BACK TO A MORE SEASONABLE FEEL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
MORE LOW STRATUS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING
ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES AT VARYING DEGREES. THE WORST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TCL/MGM AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
GREATEST IN THE S/SW PORTIONS OF C AL. LIFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
AROUND 10Z. VSBYS WHILE NOT AS LOW AS THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY GO
TO MVFR AND IN SOME CASES IFR TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GO BACK TO VFR TOWARD 18-19Z, EARLIER AT AUO.
08
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, WHICH WILL
POTENTIALLY AID IN REDUCING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
GIVEN THE UPCOMING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 49 72 58 69 / 0 10 20 70
ANNISTON 51 72 58 71 / 0 10 20 60
BIRMINGHAM 54 70 61 69 / 0 10 30 70
TUSCALOOSA 54 73 62 72 / 0 10 40 80
CALERA 52 72 59 73 / 0 10 30 70
AUBURN 55 71 58 74 / 0 10 10 30
MONTGOMERY 56 75 60 77 / 0 20 10 40
TROY 56 74 58 78 / 0 20 10 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...08
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