623
FXUS64 KBMX 080538
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1138 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1124 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVELS 1/2 OUT OF 5) FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
- FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM,
AS WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. LARGER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTIVE BANDING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT, RETURNING TO
BELOW AVERAGE TO START THE NEW WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
WITH PATCHY FOG EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION. THANKFULLY, I DON'T
EXPECTED THIS FOG TO BE AS DENSE, WITH THE BEST PROBABILITIES FOR
DENSE FOG REMAINING IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ANOTHER DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BUT MY CONFIDENCE IS
LOW WHEN IT COMES TO EXACT COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY EVENING, WITH THAT THREAT POTENTIALLY
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. TO GO ALONGSIDE THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT,
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY, PARTICULARLY IN OUR NW COUNTIES
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALREADY RANGE
BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES, WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THINGS
REALLY GETTING UNDERWAY BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TAKES A MORE SW/NE ORIENTATION. WHILE MOST OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER PARAMETERS LOOK RELATIVELY GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR,
THE LINGERING QUESTION HERE IS INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER, WE MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO DESTABILIZE IN
THESE AREAS CLOSEST TO THE FRONT. EVEN A LOT OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS INSTABILITY SUPPRESSION FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
FROM PURELY A SEVERE WEATHER STANDPOINT, SATURDAY AFTERNOON MIGHT BE
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM OR TWO. A LOT OF THE
MORNING GUIDANCES PUTS THE COLD FRONT ALONG OR NEAR I-65 BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WOULD AT LEAST ALLOW FOR A FEW HOUR
WINDOW FOR INSTABILITY TO INCREASE IN OUR SE COUNTIES AS THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. WHILE THE REGION IS CURRENTLY NOT
UNDER ANY KIND OF OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC, I WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED AT
ALL TO SEE SOMETHING GET INTRODUCED FOR THE DAY 3 PERIOD OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS MOST
CONDUCIVE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES, WITH THE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL BEING MORE SECONDARY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS FRONT, WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM HERE,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY,
BEFORE WARMING BACK TO A MORE SEASONABLE FEEL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
/44/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS FORECAST FOR
CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF SITES. LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS, BOTH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN AROUND IFR AND FIELD
MINIMUM THRESHOLD LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS OF 0520
UTC FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME, TCL AND EET WERE THE WORST OFF
LOCATIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. IT SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SPREAD TO THE REMAINING SITES AS THE OVERNIGHT GOES ON.
THE FOG BURNOFF AND CEILING LIFT PROCESS WILL BE PRETTY SLOW AND
METHODICAL THURSDAY MORNING (ALSO JUST LIKE PREVIOUS MORNINGS),
WITH THE FOG EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE A BIT QUICKER THAN THE CEILINGS
LIFT. OVC TO BKN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH CEILINGS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT ABOVE 2500 TO
3000 FEET AFTER 1800 UTC.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO START PUSHING INTO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR, WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS, WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED EARLY TO MIDDLE
NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 49 71 58 70 / 0 10 30 80
ANNISTON 51 71 59 71 / 0 10 20 70
BIRMINGHAM 54 70 61 68 / 0 10 40 80
TUSCALOOSA 54 73 61 71 / 0 10 50 90
CALERA 54 72 59 72 / 0 10 30 70
AUBURN 56 71 58 74 / 0 10 10 30
MONTGOMERY 56 74 61 78 / 0 10 10 40
TROY 56 74 58 78 / 0 10 0 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../61/
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