927
FXUS64 KBMX 090106
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
706 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 616 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVELS 1/2 OUT OF 5) FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
- FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM,
AS WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE
HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE BANDING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT, RETURNING TO
BELOW AVERAGE TO START THE NEW WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY STUBBORN THIS MORNING, BUT THAT
SHOULD CHANGE BY NOON OR 1 PM AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE
MIXED. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD STILL REACH THE 70S IN
MANY LOCATIONS.
SPEAKING OF STUBBORN, A SPRAWLING SUBTROPICAL 500 MB RIDGE WILL
HOLD FIRM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS AN ELONGATED AND MULTI-WAVE
TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. A PIPELINE
UNSEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE, ALREADY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WILL FUEL A BAND OF CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY WITHIN A CONFLUENCE ZONE AT THE TAIL END OF A FRONT.
WITH NON-EXISTENT HEIGHT FALLS, THIS CONVECTIVE BAND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO ALONG THE I-59/20
CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY THIS BAND SHOULD STALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-59/20 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ACT AS AN
EFFECTIVE FRONT. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH
THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION.
THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL RAMP UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE EJECTS TOWARDS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREAS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND PERHAPS OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT
RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY IN A WIDE SWATH
CENTERED OVER THE I-59/20 CORRIDOR WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5
INCHES. THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY IN
URBAN AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
COLDER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE TONIGHT WITH LOW CIGS DEVELOPING ~ 4-6Z. REDUCED VSBYS
FOR TCL/BHM/EET WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL RAINS BEGIN WITH OUR
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE W/NW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI. IN
THE SE (MGM/AUO) THAT ARRIVAL WILL BE LATER, AND SOME PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, LOWEST
SHOULD BE AT AUO BUT WILL MONITOR MGM AS WELL. ONE DIFFERENCE
TONIGHT WILL BE MORE ELEVATED SE/S WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WHICH
COULD KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING AS DENSE.
08
FIRE WEATHER
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD
OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR, WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS, WILL
SPREAD IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH RH VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT THIS
TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 59 68 59 68 / 40 80 100 100
ANNISTON 59 71 59 69 / 30 80 90 100
BIRMINGHAM 63 68 60 68 / 50 80 100 90
TUSCALOOSA 64 71 60 69 / 60 80 100 90
CALERA 61 71 60 71 / 40 80 90 90
AUBURN 58 74 64 72 / 10 40 50 90
MONTGOMERY 62 77 67 74 / 10 50 60 90
TROY 60 77 65 76 / 0 20 40 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARENGO-MARION-PERRY-PICKENS-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION...08
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