817
FXUS64 KBMX 090554
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1154 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1146 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVELS 1/2 OUT OF 5) FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
- FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM,
AS WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE
HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE BANDING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT, RETURNING TO
BELOW AVERAGE TO START THE NEW WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY STUBBORN THIS MORNING, BUT THAT
SHOULD CHANGE BY NOON OR 1 PM AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE
MIXED. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD STILL REACH THE 70S IN
MANY LOCATIONS.
SPEAKING OF STUBBORN, A SPRAWLING SUBTROPICAL 500 MB RIDGE WILL
HOLD FIRM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS AN ELONGATED AND MULTI-WAVE
TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. A PIPELINE
UNSEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE, ALREADY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WILL FUEL A BAND OF CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY WITHIN A CONFLUENCE ZONE AT THE TAIL END OF A FRONT.
WITH NON-EXISTENT HEIGHT FALLS, THIS CONVECTIVE BAND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO ALONG THE I-59/20
CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY THIS BAND SHOULD STALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-59/20 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ACT AS AN
EFFECTIVE FRONT. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH
THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION.
THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL RAMP UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE EJECTS TOWARDS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREAS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND PERHAPS OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT
RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY IN A WIDE SWATH
CENTERED OVER THE I-59/20 CORRIDOR WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5
INCHES. THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY IN
URBAN AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
COLDER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
SIMILAR TO PRIOR NIGHTS, HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
UP A BIT MORE TONIGHT, SO I DO THINK THE MAIN RESTRICTION WILL
COME FROM LOW CEILINGS RATHER THAN SURFACE VISIBILITY. I'VE TRIED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE VARIABILITY AND EXPECTATIONS AS BEST I CAN
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT. WILL PROBABLY NEED TO CHASE OBS
A BIT AGAIN, HOWEVER.
ONE ADDITION TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY WILL BE AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES AND POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE THREE
NORTHERN TERMINALS (BHM, EET, AND TCL). THE RAIN MOVING INTO THOSE
LOCATIONS TODAY WILL PROBABLY KEEP CEILINGS LOW. AT MGM AND AUB,
THE RAIN WILL COME MUCH LATER, SO THERE'S A BETTER CHANCE OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD
OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON
TODAY AND SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR, WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS, WILL
SPREAD IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH RH VALUES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT
THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 58 68 58 67 / 40 80 100 100
ANNISTON 58 70 60 69 / 20 80 90 100
BIRMINGHAM 62 68 61 67 / 50 80 100 100
TUSCALOOSA 63 71 59 68 / 70 90 90 90
CALERA 60 72 60 70 / 40 80 90 100
AUBURN 58 73 64 72 / 10 50 60 90
MONTGOMERY 61 76 64 74 / 10 60 70 90
TROY 58 77 64 76 / 0 30 50 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARENGO-MARION-PERRY-PICKENS-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION.../61/
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