622
FXUS64 KBMX 090843
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
243 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 224 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVELS 1/2 OUT OF 5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
- THERE IS A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM,
WITH AREAS OF 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE
HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE BANDING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT, RETURNING TO
BELOW AVERAGE TO START THE NEW WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY). BANDS OF SHOWERS NOW IN MISSISSIPPI WILL MAKE
THEIR WAY INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATER TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. I WILL AGAIN CAUTION AGAINST THE "PEAK HEATING" MINDSET
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA, AS TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL NOT
REALLY DROP OFF ALL THAT MUCH FROM THOSE DURING THE DAY. AND
MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY SURGE OF LOW LEVEL SRH OVERNIGHT,
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET.
HAVING SAID ALL THAT, WE DON'T WANT TO LOSE SIGHT OF THE FLOODING
RISK, WHICH MAY END UP BEING THE GREATER THREAT. LATEST QPF HAS
BACKED OFF ON THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA, BUT THERE
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CELLS THAT COULD BRINGS
LOCALIZED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE AS
ISSUED EARLIER.
THE STORMY WET WEATHER COMES TO AN END ON SUNDAY, AS THE COLD
FRONT RESPONSIBLE EXITS TO THE EAST. COLD AIR SPILLS BACK INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, TAKING TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS (OR LOWER) FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
/61/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
SIMILAR TO PRIOR NIGHTS, HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
UP A BIT MORE TONIGHT, SO I DO THINK THE MAIN RESTRICTION WILL
COME FROM LOW CEILINGS RATHER THAN SURFACE VISIBILITY. I'VE TRIED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE VARIABILITY AND EXPECTATIONS AS BEST I CAN
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT. WILL PROBABLY NEED TO CHASE OBS
A BIT AGAIN, HOWEVER.
ONE ADDITION TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY WILL BE AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES AND POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE THREE
NORTHERN TERMINALS (BHM, EET, AND TCL). THE RAIN MOVING INTO THOSE
LOCATIONS TODAY WILL PROBABLY KEEP CEILINGS LOW. AT MGM AND AUB,
THE RAIN WILL COME MUCH LATER, SO THERE'S A BETTER CHANCE OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD
OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON
TODAY AND SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR, WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS, WILL
SPREAD IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH RH VALUES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT
THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 68 58 67 35 / 80 100 100 10
ANNISTON 70 60 69 37 / 80 90 100 20
BIRMINGHAM 68 61 67 38 / 80 100 100 10
TUSCALOOSA 71 59 68 37 / 90 90 90 10
CALERA 72 60 70 37 / 80 90 100 10
AUBURN 73 64 72 43 / 50 60 90 30
MONTGOMERY 76 64 74 41 / 60 70 90 20
TROY 77 64 76 43 / 30 50 90 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM CST THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARENGO-MARION-PERRY-PICKENS-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../61/
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