021
FXUS64 KBMX 091800
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1200 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVELS 1/2 OUT OF 5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
- THERE IS A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM,
WITH AREAS OF 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. 5+ INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE
BANDING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 6PM SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT, RETURNING TO
BELOW AVERAGE TO START THE NEW WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
WHILE I WISH I COULD PAINT A BETTER PICTURE FOR YOU REGARDING HOW
THE DAY WILL UNFOLD, TOO MANY QUESTION MARKS REMAIN. THE EXISTING
SLIGHT RISK WAS TRIMMED BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH, UNDOUBTEDLY DUE TO
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. THAT STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MAJOR FAILING
POINT WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY, AS LIMITED SUNLIGHT AND
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF SHOULD KEEP THOSE VALUES
SUPPRESSED. THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE, WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES CONTINUING TO IMPROVE AS
THE DAY GOES ON. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN THE
MAIN SEVERE THREATS, WITH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING BEING A WHOLE
DIFFERENT THREAT OF ITS OWN.
THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR THE NEW SLIGHT RISK TOMORROW. CONVECTION
WILL BE ONGOING, WITH THE MAIN FAILING POINT REMAINING A POTENTIAL
LACK OF INSTABILITY. THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW IN THE MORNING WHERE
THINGS COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED, BUT A MESSY SCENARIO AND STORM
MODES REMAIN.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE FORECAST, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
STILL EXPECTED TO SEE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE QUESTION REMAINS WHERE THE HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE TRAINING SETS UP
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN ESTABLISHING THIS TRAINING, BUT LOCATION WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETTLES. HERE, 5-7 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WON'T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING BEHIND IT. BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH AT LEAST A FEW
DAYS OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY BEGIN TO REBOUND, BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH THE REGION SOME TIME ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL COOL THINGS OFF ONCE MORE, ALLOWING FOR BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH ALL
TERMINALS CARRYING TSRA AND REDUCED VIS. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
MOST OF THE DAY AS WELL, WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. QUICK DROPS INTO LIFR VIS OR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION AS WELL. EXPECTED THESE CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, WHICH SHOULD AID
IN REDUCING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE UPCOMING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LITTLE TO
NONE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 67 58 68 35 / 90 90 90 10
ANNISTON 70 59 70 36 / 90 90 90 10
BIRMINGHAM 68 60 67 38 / 90 90 90 10
TUSCALOOSA 71 59 69 38 / 90 100 90 0
CALERA 72 61 71 37 / 90 100 90 10
AUBURN 74 64 72 42 / 50 70 80 30
MONTGOMERY 77 65 74 41 / 60 80 90 20
TROY 77 64 76 43 / 30 50 80 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-
CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page