888
FXUS64 KBMX 100112
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
712 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 611 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVELS 1/2 OUT OF 5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
- THERE IS A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM,
WITH AREAS OF 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. 5+ INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE
BANDING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 6PM SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT, RETURNING TO
BELOW AVERAGE TO START THE NEW WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
WHILE I WISH I COULD PAINT A BETTER PICTURE FOR YOU REGARDING HOW
THE DAY WILL UNFOLD, TOO MANY QUESTION MARKS REMAIN. THE EXISTING
SLIGHT RISK WAS TRIMMED BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH, UNDOUBTEDLY DUE TO
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. THAT STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MAJOR FAILING
POINT WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY, AS LIMITED SUNLIGHT AND
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF SHOULD KEEP THOSE VALUES
SUPPRESSED. THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE, WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES CONTINUING TO IMPROVE AS
THE DAY GOES ON. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN THE
MAIN SEVERE THREATS, WITH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING BEING A WHOLE
DIFFERENT THREAT OF ITS OWN.
THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR THE NEW SLIGHT RISK TOMORROW. CONVECTION
WILL BE ONGOING, WITH THE MAIN FAILING POINT REMAINING A POTENTIAL
LACK OF INSTABILITY. THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW IN THE MORNING WHERE
THINGS COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED, BUT A MESSY SCENARIO AND STORM
MODES REMAIN.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE FORECAST, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
STILL EXPECTED TO SEE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE QUESTION REMAINS WHERE THE HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE TRAINING SETS UP
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN ESTABLISHING THIS TRAINING, BUT LOCATION WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETTLES. HERE, 5-7 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WON'T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING BEHIND IT. BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH AT LEAST A FEW
DAYS OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY BEGIN TO REBOUND, BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH THE REGION SOME TIME ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL COOL THINGS OFF ONCE MORE, ALLOWING FOR BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS C AL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
THE DAY ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WHILE THERE WILL BE POCKETS
OF TS AT TIMES, DID NOT WANT TO OVER BLANKET WITH TS. TRIED TO
PINPOINT BEST TIME FRAME, WITH A MENTION FOR SRN TAFS (MGM/AUO) ON
SAT AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WILL BE MONITORING FOR ANY POTENTIAL
CHANGES/AMENDMENTS. CURRENT CIGS ARE VFR TO MVFR, BUT WILL
DETERIORATE FURTHER TO IFR/LIFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND REMAIN
MUCH OF SAT. VSBYS WILL PERIODICALLY DROP TO MVFR/IFR WITH AND
NEAR CONVECTION. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT
DURING THE DAY SAT.
08
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, WHICH SHOULD AID
IN REDUCING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE UPCOMING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LITTLE TO
NONE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 58 68 35 47 / 90 90 10 0
ANNISTON 59 70 36 49 / 90 90 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 60 67 38 47 / 90 90 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 59 69 38 51 / 100 90 0 0
CALERA 61 71 37 52 / 100 90 10 0
AUBURN 64 72 42 53 / 70 80 30 0
MONTGOMERY 65 74 41 54 / 80 90 20 0
TROY 64 76 43 54 / 50 80 30 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-
CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...08
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page