453
FXUS64 KBMX 100534
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1134 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1132 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVELS 1/2 OUT OF 5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY
- THERE IS A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH
AREAS OF 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. 2-4
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH 6PM SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT, RETURNING TO
BELOW AVERAGE TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
ANY BANDING OF HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN
QUITE A BIT OF RAIN FROM FRIDAY. THESE AREAS WILL BE WATCHED FOR
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LIMITED AS
INSTABILITY REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. WITH THE PERSISTENT RAINFALL OVER
THE AREA, IT MAY BE HARD FOR INSTABILITY RECOVERY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THAT SAID, THERE'S A LOW CHANCE FOR A STRONG STORM
OR TWO BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING, MARKING
A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40 ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE MID
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES, NEARLY 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP CENTRAL AL RAIN-
FREE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE MAY SWING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY LEADING TO LOW (15%) CHANCE OF
RAIN, BUT GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE COVERAGE OF THIS. WITH A PERSISTENT
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, I MIGHT LEAN
ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THE SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE, COOLER
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
MESSY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SLOW-MOVING
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. IN BETWEEN THE RAIN SHOWERS, LOW CIGS
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
BETWEEN 00-06Z AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND DRIER AIR
BUILDS IN.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MINRHS WILL DROP INTO THE 30%
RANGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, THROUGH
ROUGHLY MID-WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 58 69 34 47 / 100 100 10 0
ANNISTON 59 70 36 48 / 100 100 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 61 68 37 47 / 100 100 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 59 69 37 51 / 100 90 0 0
CALERA 60 71 36 51 / 100 100 10 0
AUBURN 65 72 41 52 / 60 80 30 0
MONTGOMERY 66 75 40 53 / 60 90 20 0
TROY 65 76 42 55 / 40 80 30 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-
CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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