120
FXUS64 KBMX 101051
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
451 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 450 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVELS 1/2 OUT OF 5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY
- THERE IS A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH
AREAS OF 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. 2-4
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH 6PM SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT, RETURNING TO
BELOW AVERAGE TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR TORNADO WATCH
ISSUED AT 450 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
LOOKING AT THE OBSERVATIONS AND VELOCITY ON LOCAL RADARS THE
PSEUDO WARM FRONT BOUNDARY IS ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM
TUSCALOOSA TO PELHAM, TO ANNISTON. IT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME BRIEF ROTATIONS AS CELLS MOVE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY, WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA, THUS THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WATCH. FURTHER TO THE WEST WE CAN SEE THE
FRONT ITSELF BEGINNING TO CATCH UP TO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT
THE CURRENT WARNINGS IN MISSISSIPPI ARE LINING UP ON. THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS INCREASING RIGHT NOW AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH
EAST AND EAST- NORTHEAST. LOOK FOR THIS UPTICK IN ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA WILL REALLY
SEE THE UPTICK AFTER 5 AM.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
ANY BANDING OF HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN
QUITE A BIT OF RAIN FROM FRIDAY. THESE AREAS WILL BE WATCHED FOR
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LIMITED AS
INSTABILITY REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. WITH THE PERSISTENT RAINFALL OVER
THE AREA, IT MAY BE HARD FOR INSTABILITY RECOVERY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THAT SAID, THERE'S A LOW CHANCE FOR A STRONG STORM
OR TWO BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING, MARKING
A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40 ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE MID
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES, NEARLY 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP CENTRAL AL RAIN-
FREE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE MAY SWING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY LEADING TO LOW (15%) CHANCE OF
RAIN, BUT GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE COVERAGE OF THIS. WITH A PERSISTENT
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, I MIGHT LEAN
ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THE SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE, COOLER
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
MESSY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST. A
SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. IN BETWEEN THE RAIN SHOWERS, LOW CIGS CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BETWEEN
00-06Z AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND DRIER AIR BUILDS
IN.
16
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MINRHS WILL DROP INTO THE 30%
RANGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, THROUGH
ROUGHLY MID-WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 67 34 47 23 / 100 10 0 0
ANNISTON 69 36 48 25 / 100 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 66 37 47 27 / 100 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 67 37 51 27 / 90 0 0 0
CALERA 70 36 51 26 / 100 10 0 0
AUBURN 71 41 52 29 / 80 30 0 0
MONTGOMERY 74 40 53 28 / 90 20 0 0
TROY 75 42 55 28 / 80 30 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-
CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...16
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