967
FXUS64 KBMX 101640
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1040 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1040 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
- THERE IS A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT AND WILL BECOME BELOW AVERAGE TO START THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
ANY BANDING OF HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN
QUITE A BIT OF RAIN FROM FRIDAY. THESE AREAS WILL BE WATCHED FOR
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LIMITED AS
INSTABILITY REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. WITH THE PERSISTENT RAINFALL OVER
THE AREA, IT MAY BE HARD FOR INSTABILITY RECOVERY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THAT SAID, THERE'S A LOW CHANCE FOR A STRONG STORM
OR TWO BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING, MARKING
A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40 ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE MID
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES, NEARLY 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP CENTRAL AL RAIN-
FREE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE MAY SWING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY LEADING TO LOW (15%) CHANCE OF
RAIN, BUT GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE COVERAGE OF THIS. WITH A PERSISTENT
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, I MIGHT LEAN
ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THE SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE, COOLER
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EET/MGM/AUO THROUGH MIDDAY,
WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AT TCL/BHM BEFORE NOON. EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN A
RETURN TO AREAWIDE VFR EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM 10-15 KTS ON AVERAGE THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
05
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MINRHS WILL DROP INTO THE 30%
RANGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, THROUGH
ROUGHLY MID-WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 68 35 47 23 / 100 10 0 0
ANNISTON 70 36 48 25 / 90 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 68 37 47 27 / 100 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 68 37 51 27 / 100 0 0 0
CALERA 70 37 51 27 / 100 10 0 0
AUBURN 72 42 52 29 / 90 30 0 0
MONTGOMERY 75 40 53 27 / 90 20 0 0
TROY 76 42 54 28 / 90 30 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-
CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-
LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...05
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